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Fri,Feb 14,2014
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China's trade sees rosy start, caution remains (2)

(Xinhua)    07:33, February 14, 2014
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Based on the breakdown information, Lu said the strong exports were driven by demand from the EU and the U.S., while the strong import growth was driven by China's commodity demand, especially iron ore and copper.

Zhang Yansheng, secretary general of the Academic Committee at the National Development and Reform Commission, said the market was generally optimistic about economic prospects of major economies, including the EU, U.S. and Japan, and about steady growth in emerging markets.

China's export growth will be quite strong this year on the back of recovering external demand, Zhang said.

However, Chang said he remained cautious about exports this year.

"But we will watch closely for upside surprises that suggest underlying growth," he added.

"Our conservative export growth forecast of 9.3 percent this year assumes that the high base from last year matters," said Chang.

Zhang Zhiwei, chief China economist with Japan's Nomura Securities, said in a research note that it is unclear to what extent the strong export data reflect true strength in the economy.

"The data on industrial production for January and February will be released on March 13 and should help to confirm the actual strength of export growth," Zhang said.

YUAN PROMINENCE

Wednesday's data release by the General Administration of Customs (GAC) broke the mould in its use of the yuan denomination, rather than following the tradition of talking purely in terms of U.S. dollars.

In the yuan-denominated version, foreign trade volume last month was 2.34 trillion yuan, up 7.3 percent from January 2013.

The yuan-to-dollar conversion is based on exchange rate figures released monthly by the country's forex regulator.

Exports and imports in yuan grew 7.6 percent and 7 percent respectively, both 3 percentage points lower than the dollar-denominated paces.

The disparity represents a remarkable appreciation of the yuan in 2013.

The central parity rate of the yuan against the U.S. dollar grew by 3.09 percent last year, central bank data showed.

Last February, the GAC started using the yuan to calculate some trade figures, including exports, imports and trade surplus, to promote the international use of the Chinese currency.

However, growth rate figures were not specified in last February's yuan-denominated table, as previous data had all been dollar-denominated.

In the new statement, the GAC also began releasing most figures in yuan instead of in dollars as in previous statements.

【1】 【2】

(Editor:DuMingming、Yao Chun)

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