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Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Wednesday, October 16, 2002

News Analysis: Thai-Myanmar Relations Are at Turning Point

Myanmar reopened its border checkpoints, which were closed in May, with Thailand on Oct. 15. The move sent a clear signal that the relations between the two countries which once fell to the freezing point began to turn for the better. But it is still difficult to say if their relations will run into an old circle or take on a new leaf.


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Myanmar reopened its border checkpoints, which were closed in May, with Thailand on Oct. 15.

The move sent a clear signal that the relations between the two countries which once fell to the freezing point began to turn for the better. But it is still difficult to say if their relations will run into an old circle or take on a new leaf.

For the local analysts, they had been accustomed to the repeated events and the similar circle -- a normal situation, thenborder skirmishes which deteriorated the bilateral relations, the ensuing propaganda war between the media of the two countries, thesealing of border, and the reopening of border passes as a result of several months' mediation.

Even the cause and the mode of clashes have been the same for many years -- this year is a typical example.

To begin with, the Thai army was accused of fighting artillery shells into Myanmar during a battle between Myanmar government troops and ethnic rebels in May, while the Thai army argued that it opened fire after the fighting between Myanmar troops and rebels spilled into Thai soil.

But Myanmar insisted that Thailand provided support to the rebels, and then closed all the checkpoints along the border.

Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra explained on several occasions that this year's clash was caused by "misunderstanding."However, just a year before, he had made a fence-mending trip to Rangoon to explain the cases.

Why did the "misunderstanding" occur year after year? analysts pointed out that if the real obstacles between the two countries could not be removed, the bilateral relations would go around the starting point of an old circle as ever before.

The first trouble is Myanmar's ethnic minority groups, including the anti-government guerrilla forces such as the Karen National Union (KNU), the Shan State Army (SSA) and the Karenni National Progressive Party (NKPP); and the pro-Rangoon troops likethe United Wa State Army, which signed a peace agreement with the Myanmar government in 1989.

All the groups are based along the border, and the UWSA even controls an autonomous territory along the China-Myanmar border opposite to Thailand's northern provinces, just a few kilometers away from the checkpoints.

Further more, limited by the landform, both sides involved in the clashes have to order their soldiers to move across the borderduring their clashes which used to occur in the dry season every year, thus the quarrels between the two neighboring countries seemunavoidable.

The second problem is narcotics. Thaksin admitted that Thailandwould have to live with the fact that the ethnic and political troubles across the Thai-Myanmar border would always be inextricably linked with drugs.

He said that drug and opium warlords in Myanmar all operated outside government jurisdiction; that means the Myanmar governmentshould not be held accountable for their illicit activities.

But for the military officers who was on the narcotics front facing with the organized armed drug traffickers everyday, the explanation is difficult to change their hostility to the other side of the border, nor can it make them to believe the Myanmar government could not control the UWSA, which produces and smugglesvarious types of illicit drugs for the Thai market.

Besides, the repatriation of some 100,000 Myanmar refugees, whofled fighting between Rangoon troops and rebel forces, and the demarcation of the 2,400-kilometer Thai-Myanmar border also constitute big problems for the two neighboring countries.

In view of these complicated problems, some analysts predicted that the reopening of border was only the prelude of the ensuing closure, while some other analysts argued that the situation may be different this time as Thaksin's new answer to the problem alsoprovided a new chance.

Despite the criticism from parliament and media, during the latest three months the Thai government replaced the hardliners inthe annual military reshuffle, revised the new school history book,funded a 20-million baht crop-substitution project in the territory controlled by the UWSA, and deported more than 30 so-called Myanmar dissidents.

The attitude also received good response from Myanmar. When Myanmar's Foreign Minister Win Aung paid an official visit to Bangkok this September, he had promised to Thaksin that Myanmar would "take a very, very serious fighting against drugs" and that this year the world would see the result of the Myanmar government's work.

Moreover, Win Aung and his Thai counterpart Surakiart both stressed there were many areas that the two countries can cooperate, because the two countries live in the same area, share the same culture and respect each other's sovereignty and independence.

Although it is too early to conclude from a speech that Thaksin's olive branch will bring a bright future for the bilateral relations, but a chilly period of their bilateral ties have indeedended and a good chance is available for the two countries.







Source: Xinhua News Agency


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