S.Africans optimistic about 2004

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Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Tuesday, January 06, 2004

S.Africans optimistic about 2004

"I expect this year will be better than last year since our President Mbeki is working hard," said a 40-year-old black woman sitting in lawn in Zoo Lake, Johannesburg, Monday.

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"I expect this year will be better than last year since our President Mbeki is working hard," said a 40-year-old black woman sitting in lawn in Zoo Lake, Johannesburg, Monday.

Under the southern hemisphere's sunshine, Carol Mogale, who wears sunglasses and works as secretary executive for big companies in the country, said: "I earn an average income of 12,000 rand (about 1850 US dollars) a month last year, of course I want more this year."

"I will vote for Thabo Mbeki in the third general election to show my support to the black government and democracy in my country," she said.

Carol Mogale is among most South Africans who are growing increasingly optimistic about the future, with a new survey showing that only one in four citizens believes this year will be worse than the last.

George Hills, a white painter from eastern Mpumalanga province,echoed that he expected a good year in 2004 and wanted to paint more good paintings and earn more money.

A new Markinor survey, which forms part of an annual international Gallup poll, has found in a poll of 3,500 South Africans in October and November last year that between 37 percentand 42 percent of the people who earn between 1200 rand (185 dollars) and 12,000 rand a month feel positive about the year ahead.

In contrast, 38 percent of respondents questioned in early 2003thought it was going to be a worse year than 2002.

Crucial factors bolstering the national mood include the recovery of the rand, lower interest rates and the impending national election.

Markinor Director Mari Harris said: "Internationally it is the case that if an election is imminent, people tend to be more optimistic. They think things will change after an election, or that things will go more their way.

"Between elections politicians don't tend to come into contact with ordinary people with the same frequency but when an election is approaching, the people see a lot of their politicians and heara lot of promises."

"Another aspect we have to take into account is that the war inIraq was imminent at the end of 2002 when we did the previous study. I think there is much less tension internationally than there was a year ago and it has had a big influence," he said.

The survey went all over the country, even into deep rural areas.

He said, "We really made an effort to make it as representativeas possible of adult South Africans that are 16 years and older.

Of those polled, 34 percent feel that this year will bring moreeconomic prosperity. But 30 percent believe that strikes and industrial action will increase.

Unemployment remains a pressing concern, with 58 percent respondents saying it will increase even further. But this has dropped from 64 percent last year.

However, political scientists and economists are of the opinionthat the finding by a survey that South Africans are optimistic about their future is a "farce" because income does not appear to be a major deciding factor.

Political activist Dan Roodt thought the survey was "a strikingcontrast -- a paradox in the extreme sense. For me the survey sounds like government propaganda which makes people believe that things are rosy whereas they are undergoing untold suffering underthe African National Congress (ANC) government."

Political scientist Zathele Ndlovu said the survey tried to be positive about everything, but it was far from honest.

He said in spite of having gone all over the country and "even into deep rural areas", it was selective because people who were reported to be positive were those who earned a living, however meager.

Sharing the same sentiments was Stellenbosch University's emeritus Professor Sampie Terreblanche, who said the forthcoming election was the main factor which made people think the future would be bright despite poverty, unemployment, AIDS and violent crime.

Economist Azar Jammine said although the country was not going collapse because of AIDS, poverty, unemployment and the high rate of violent crime, these social problems were preventing foreign investment in the country.

Sociologist Lawrence Schlemmer said that it was good that people were optimistic about the future, but it was disappointing that the percentage was lower than 50 percent.

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