The latest statistics shows that China's hi-tech products export has been growing at a staggering speed of more than 40 percent for 30 months in a row. Although it is the result of viewing the situation on a phased rather than monthly basis, it is remarkable. However, doubts are overshadowing about how long the momentum can sustain.

It is true that challenges are on the way here. Foreign markets have switched their strategy of trade barriers to IPR(intellectual property rights) and technical thresholds from anti-dumping investigations and safeguard measures. And they have increasingly targeting at the hi-tech industries like color TV rather than at textiles and the light industry.

Major trade partners including US, EU and Japan have kept questioning China's IPR protection and launching IPR disputes on Chinese hi-tech products such as DVD, mobiles and digital TV.

For China, the structure of hi-tech products exports is still a big problem. The regional gap is widening. Coastal areas in east China contribute 98 percent of the exports of which 80 percent are shipped to US, EU and Japan. 90 percent of the exports are manufactured by foreign-funded enterprises, joint ventures and Sino-foreign cooperatives.

But exports with IRP, brand and high added value account for a very small part. As a result, products with weak international competitiveness generate low comparative benefits and are vulnerable to market risks.

In addition, the new regime of export tax rebate also has pushed costs up and some hi-tech companies have found it difficult to adapt to the change. The high foundation laid in the past 30 months also makes it a challenging task to keep the top gear on through the fourth quarter of the year and next year. What's more, the influence of the surging oil price which is hitting the whole world is also worth noticing.

Though the speed of more than 40 percent does not sounds realistic for the period to follow, China's hi-tech export will head on at high gear. This argument is based on the following facts.

The policy of boosting the trade with science and technology has improved thanks to the government's efforts since the beginning of the year. The Ministry of Commerce has identified six national software export bases and launched the certification of the first national pharmaceuticals exports bases. The Ministry of Finance has increased its injection into the program of boosting the trade with science and technology to 300 million yuan.

The General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine plans to put 2000 enterprises into the fast track of the procedure. The General Customs has made its fast track of declaration accessible to annual exports worth 10 million USD which used to be open only to 100 million USD for hi-tech enterprises in western China.

Exporters delivering 3 million USD goods, or those exporting 1 million USD software products a year are also eligible for sellers' loan from the Export-Import Bank of China, which was exclusively granted to those registering 10 million USD exports a year. China Export and Credit Insurance Corporation has streamlined its procedures for clients asking for insurance polices and claiming indemnity.

The world market is developing a bigger appetite for Chinese hi-tech products. A survey of IDG indicates that sales of PC is expected to reach 170 million and the market for lap-top computers to expand by 26 percent. Demand for mobiles, digital TV, DVD and MP3 will be very brisk.

As the international IT industry continues its relocation to China, the effect of trade transfer is more and more visible. The new policy of export rebate has helped many hi-tech exporters enjoy healthier cash flow. The ratio of tax rebate to hi-tech products under 97 categories is untouched, which gives a push-start to their sales.

Huawei, ZTE, and TCL are typical examples of dynamic growth of domestic enterprises with the capability of innovation. The number of enterprises selling 100 million USD to 1 billion USD worth of goods to foreign buyers is also rising year by year. More and more private businesses have begun export business. And foreign firms are another important driving force of hi-tech exports.

In the conclusion, the positive elements will underpin the promising prospect of China's hi-tech export which is expected to top 150 billion USD this year. A slowing pace is likely and normal.

In a word, a expanding export does not necessarily mean the rising quantity. A sustainable growth really makes sense.

By People's Daily Online