"China is expected to become the largest economic entity in the world by 2030," said Lin Yifu, president of the Global Young Chinese Business Leaders Forum (GYC), director of the China Center for Economic Research, Peking University and professor of economics, at the first Global Young Chinese Business Leaders Forum held in Beijing on January 9. His words startled all present at the GYC forum.

Lin explained that he was not blindly optimistic about the prospects of the Chinese economy and Chinese enterprises. The Chinese economy has maintained an annual average growth rate reaching 9.7 percent and Chinese economic growth increased by 9.5 times since China adopted reform and opening up policy 25 years ago. Judging from either the macro history of economic development or the micro data of the economic development in recent years, China has already felt a rejuvenating way in which the Chinese economy would maintain an annual average growth rate of 7 to 10 per cent in the next 20 to 30 years or even longer. And the economic strength could make China rank among the world's economic giants.

The per capita income in China by 2030 will be equal to 20 per cent of that in the US. However, the China's population is five times larger than the US's. Under that circumstance, China's economy will be as large as the US's. If the currency appreciation were accounted, China's economy would be 1.5 to two times of US's. Till then, China will fully deserve the title of the largest and the strongest economic entity in the world.

By 2030, 100 Chinese companies could be among the 500 largest businesses in the world, according to Lin. In 2002 192 American enterprises were selected into the world's top 500 enterprises, accounting for 38.4 per cent of the world's total. Japan's economy took up 15 per cent of the global economy in 2002, boosting 88 enterprises in the top 500 and accounting for 17.6 per cent. Therefore, if China's economy is equivalent to its American counterpart, there will be 100 Chinese enterprises in the top 500 in the world, that is to say 20 per cent of them are Chinese enterprises.

By People's Daily Online