Iraq is nagged by three difficulties: Comment

There was once a relatively tranquil period in the Iraqi situation after the general election. This seems to fade out the vision of global media. But the recent comeback of violence attacks has once again aroused people's attention: First, the new cabinet formed in three months after the general election still needs to be voted through by the transitional National Assembly; second, armed attacks and hostage-kidnapping activities have once again escalated; third, the spearhead of attacks and kidnapping activities is obviously turned to the Shiites.

The light of hopes once kindled by the election in the hearts of the people tends to become dim; People begin to query the cooperative willingness and political wisdom of various Iraqi factions. Even the Bush administration, which has always expressed that it would not interfere with the process of Iraqi cabinet formation, has become somewhat impatient, US Vice-President Cheney and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice recently have urged in succession various Iraqi factions to complete the work of cabinet formation as quickly as possible.

Facts have proved that the rebuilding of a country is far from being so easy as the United States imagines, simply stated, Iraq is presently faced with three knotty problems.

At present, the first difficult problem is the distribution of power. Although an agreement was reached among the various factions not long ago, and the parliament speaker, president and vice-presidents have been elected, the post of prime minister has been cut and dried. But it is only till now that the entire cabinet is formed. The reason for this is that the three major factions were all determined to get the important posts of oil minister, internal affairs minister and national defense minister and refused to make mutual concessions.

The present contention has revealed that the three major factions are acting eventually for their respective purposes and do not place national interests above the interests of religious sects and races. In addition, the Allawi-led faction's excessive demand can hardly be accepted by other factions. Although presently the new cabinet has been barely formed, in the future there could still be contention among the three factions in the distribution of other major rights and interests, such as in the distribution of oil income, the ownership of Kirkuk, the retention or abolition of the Kurdish armed force, and the drawing up of a new constitution.

The second difficult problem is how to deal with the increasingly rampant militants. The new president, Jalal Talabani, tactically differentiated them into resistance force and terrorists and instituted a policy of amnesty and enlistment to the former. However, this soft and hard tactic has so far failed to achieve any result, After US troops began to hide themselves at the back stage following the general election, the Iraqi new army and police with the Shiites and Kurds as the mainstay became the scapegoats.

What is more disquieting is that currently the Sunnis militants have more clearly directed their spearhead at the Shiites, not only was Prime Minister Allawi of the Shiite faction attacked, but some mosques of the Shiites were bombed, even ordinary Shiites were murdered in cold blood. Considering the whole situation, the Shiites have all along restrained themselves and endured patiently. But if this tendency could not be put under check, the Shiites would possibly rise in counterattack. The crisis of a civil war would possibly erupt at anytime. The current situation is a severe test to the wisdom and patience of the Shiites.

The third difficult problem is the departure or stay of US troops and the policy orientation of the new transitional government. Experts and scholars have kept asking: Will the new Iraqi government be pro-America, or pro-Iran? As everybody knows, most of the Shiite members of the transitional government had once been exiled to, and gained help from, Iran, furthermore, they and the Iranian power-holders both belong to Shiites. On the other hand, the emancipation of the Shiites in Iraq cannot but be "credited to" US military intervention.

The current situation is that the new Iraqi army and police have not become full-fledged, they are unable to support single-handed.The new government needs the protection and escort of the US-led multinational troops. But the presence and misdeed of US troops have aroused the public's anti-US sentiment, thereby providing a public will foundation and moral support for the anti-US military activities. So the three Iraqi major factions expressed different attitudes on the question concerning US troops withdrawal: The Sunnis demand an immediate, unconditional pullout; the Shiites stand for withdrawal after fulfillment of the political process; while the Kurds have the intention to allow US troops to stay. It is not hard to see that the new government's attitude on this issue is often self-contradictory.

The first knotty problem is expected to be resolved within days, because if solution of this question is dragged on for a long term, Iraq would possibly go to the brink of a civil war, this is what various Iraqi parties do not want to see. The second difficult problem can hardly be solved within the near term, unless the three major factions in the new government could really cast off their past grievances, engage in sincere cooperation, create good conditions for propelling national conciliation across the country and create necessary conditions for an early pullout of US troops.

As to its foreign policy, the emphasis is placed on the need of national reconstruction and national interests, it seems that the new Iraqi government would neither closely follow Iran to confront the United States; nor would it keep company with the United States and reduce itself to a US anti-Iran tool. In short, if the new government wants to solve these three major difficult problems, what it needs is not an intelligent head and a magnanimous heart, but a national consciousness of transcending factions and considering the general situation.

The commentary is published on page 3 of People's Daily on April 28 and translated by People's Daily Online