The Uganda government is at the crossroads as a donor crisis looms when announcing Tuesday that it had cautioned diplomats against making statements on the country's political transition in the media.

The announcement was made by Government Spokesman and Minister of Information Nsaba Buturo after a number of donors threatened to withdraw their aid.

"It is a normal practice that the diplomats communicate through the ministry of foreign affairs and not the media," said Buturo.

Analysts here argue that this move by the government has been sparked off by the diplomats spirited concerns about the country's political transition.

Many of them have argued that the move to amend the constitutional provision on presidential term limits is aimed at enabling Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni to run for a third term in power.

According to the country's 1995 constitution, a president is supposed to rule for only two consecutive terms. However there have been debates in the country to amend this provision, so that a president can rule for as long as the people elect him.

Government officials argue that it because of the diplomats' concerns that their home countries have started cutting aid to Uganda.

Weeks ago the British government announced that it is withhold aid worth 9.9 million US dollar for the country's financial year in 2004/05, threatening to hold more if the country does not provide a leveled ground for the transition to multiparty politics.

The Irish government has also announced that it is likely to cut aid to the east African country citing inconsistencies in the transitional process that the country is currently going through.

On Tuesday, the government-owned newspaper, the New Vision reported that a World Bank commissioned study has recommended aid cuts to Uganda over the next three years, warning that the recent political developments have jeopardized the country's development agenda.

Last week the donors in the country under their umbrella organization, Donor Democracy and Governance Group (DDGG) wrote to Ugandan Prime Minister Apollo Nsibambi seeking a meeting to discuss growing donor concern over the political transition, human rights violations and grand corruption.

The donors in DDGG include Austria, Belgium, Britain, Canada, the European Union, France, Germany Ireland, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, and the United States of America as well as the United Nations Resident Representative.

Following this communication, Prime Minister Apollo Nsibambi has called key cabinet ministers for a meeting to come up with a common position before he meets the diplomats.

The Ugandan government has come out angrily protesting the donors concerns saying they are interfering in the country's domestic issues.

Prime Minister Nsibambi downplayed the donors concerns arguing that the transition process is moving on well.

In a recent interview with Xinhua, the government spokesman Nsaba Buturo said that the government is relaxed and is going to look for alternative sources of funding.

He said that as far as the government is concerned, there is no problem with the political transition process despite a few drawbacks which are not of government making.

"Yes we agreed on the conditions of the aid, but who knew that parliament would delay the motion of holding a referendum for Ugandans to decide whether they should be governed under the multiparty system?" asked Buturo.

He said that donors have got vested interests in the internal affairs of Uganda, which to him is wrong.

The opposition in Uganda however is happy with what is going on in the country. They argue that the transitional process has not been handled well saying that there are many loopholes.

They argue that since the government and the opposition are in agreement that the country should go multiparty there is no reason to hold the referendum, which will be costly to the country.

President Museveni however noted that the referendum must be held arguing that Ugandans should be consulted on whether to go multiparty.

Uganda's multiparty politics has been tinted with a bad history. Some circles argue that it is responsible for the political turmoil the country faced during the 1970s and early 1980s, which saw tens of thousands of Ugandans killed.

President Museveni noted that it is a matter of time that the east African country will stop depending on donor aid which has many strings attacked. He observed if the country stops all tax leakages and evasions, the country would cease to depend on donor aid.

Analysts said it should be noted that like many African countries, Uganda still has some many years probably decades before it decides to abandon donor aid. Over 50 percent of the country's overall budget, and 90 percent of the development budget are currently funded by donors.

Makerere University Professor of International Relations Elijah Mushemeza recently observed that the country may play politics but the move of dismissing donor aid is impossible.

He noted that donors have a direct say in Ugandan politics because they are the ones with the financial muscle.

A financial expert in the country's ministry of finance, Keith Muhakanizi recently said that the government would not last for more than 6 months if all donor aid is cut off.

The aid freeze would force the country's central bank to dig deep into the country's foreign reserves, which at 1 billion dollars are awfully inadequate.

"We have only 6 billion dollars worth of imports, goods and services. We can only go for six months," said Muhakanizi.

With all this, Uganda is in a rather tricky situation. It is at a crossroads. It can not do without donor aid but still can not stomach the pressure of donors dictating what it should.

Local analysts said though donors have got the financial muscle, they should also take into consideration the views of the Ugandans, analysts said. On the transition process, Ugandans should have a direct say, looking at the country's political history, which has been marred with the deaths of millions of people.

Source: Xinhua