There can hardly be major change in Iran's foreign policy

Iranian President-elect Mahmoud Ahmadinejad holds a press conference in Tehran June 26, 2005. Ahmadinejad said that Iran would not give up its right to develop nuclear technologies.

The result of Iran's second round of presidential election was announced on June 25, the conservative candidate, Tehran Mayor Mahmoud Ahmadinejad defeated former President Hasheni Rafsanjani with high rate of support and was thus elected as the ninth president. The victory of Ahmadinejad will undoubtedly exert certain influence on Iran's foreign policy.

According to Iran's system, leader Ali Khamenei is the final arbitrator of domestic and foreign affairs, the president, who is only head of government, does not hold a key position in the formulation of foreign policy. As a faithful supporter of Khamenei, Ahmadinejad, after his assumption of office, will basically continue the existing framework of Iran's foreign policy and will not make substantive change in it as a whole. Ahmadinejad has expressed that he would continue to pursue the present moderate diplomacy, strengthen Iran's relations with neighboring counties and would continue to carry out dialogs with Europe.

However, as an important member participating in foreign policy decision and a main executive of foreign policy, the president's influence on diplomacy is easily visible. Judging from Ahmadinejad's experience in his official career and his campaign speech, the new Iranian government will possibly make some new changes in its foreign policy:

Firstly, it puts forward its "three-ring diplomacy". Ahmadinejad has indicated that he would give diplomatic priority to the objects in the order as: the gulf countries, the Islamic countries and non-hostile countries, this foreign policy is dubbed "The Third World diplomacy" by some experts. As a loyal upholder of the Islamic revolutionary system, Ahmadinejad places much emphasis on developing relations with Islamic countries, hoping to peddle Iran's "religious democratic system" to the Islamic world and thus expand Iran's influence. He indicated that Iran should quicken the pace of its development and serve as an example for the Islamic world.

Secondly, in regard to Iran's relationship with the United States, Ahmadinejad's attitude is not so active as that of Rafsanjani, in his opinion, improving ties with the United States is not Iran's current most concerned affair. With regard to recent US acts of allowing Iran to become a WTO observer and selling civil airplane parts and components to Iran, Ahmadinejad regards the US act as an attempt to give petty favors to Iran in exchange for the latter's abandonment of its nuclear development, describing this as a daydream.

Tehran Mayor Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a conservative, has won a landslide victory in Friday's Iranian presidential run-off, the Interior Ministry announced Saturday.

Ahmadinejad's assumption of power may imply that the door expecting a breakthrough in US-Iran relations is closed again. The Bush administration once placed its hope on Rafsanjani's assumption of office, now the Iranian government is completely controlled by the conservatives, the United States cannot but reassess the Iranian political situation, and it will likely readopt a tough policy toward Iran. If the US-Iranian relationship tends to be deteriorating, it will exert important influence on the development of the Iraqi situation and on the development trend of the Iranian nuclear issue.

Thirdly, on the nuke issue, difficulties in European-Iranian negotiation will increase and a nuclear crisis will likely break out again. Ahmadinejad holds that it is Iran's legitimate, inalienable right to develop nuclear technology, so Iran insists on its enriched uranium activity. Although he supports negotiation with the European Union (EU), he, however, criticizes the Iranian side for making too many concessions, demanding the defense of Iran's national interests. Considering that senior Iranian negotiator Hassan Rowhani supported Rafsanjani in election, Ahmadinejad may reorganize the negotiating group and adopt a tough stance in negotiation with Europe.

Superficially, Ahmadinejad's foreign policy seems to shrink back to the policy adopted in the early period of revolution: Fighting against the West and exporting Islamic revolution abroad. However, things have changed with the passage of time, history cannot be replicated, it is impossible to slip back to the old path. Although Mohammed Khatami played a notable role in making some superficial change in Iran's foreign policy in recent years, Khamenei is still the final decision-maker. Khamenei, as a sober-minded realist, advocates for reform, developing the economy and improving its external relations, so as to lift the country out of international isolation. This is an irresistible main trend of the Iranian society. Ahmadinejad actually is also a pragmatic conservative. Given this, Ahmadinejad's assumption of office does not imply that US-Iranian ties have embarked on the road beyond redemption, Iran will not indulge in confrontation on the nuclear issue, compromise and cooperation will still be Ahmadinejad'schoice.

Carried on the front page of People's Daily Overseas Edition, June 27, the article is translated by People's Daily Online