The election of Mayor of Tehran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as Iran's new president is out of the expectations of many people and makes the US government at a loss what to do. The International Herald Tribune analyzed on June 27 that the Bush administration will face three-faceted challenges from the new Iranian government and US-Iranian relationship will be confronted with more variables.

Bush administration caught unprepared

The US government appeared to be quite "calm" before Iran's presidential election this month. US officials said on different occasions that whatever the election result, the US definition of Iran as a country "supporting terrorism" will not be changed and Washington will treat the Iranian presidential election result in an attitude of "coping with any changing events by keeping its fundamental policy unchanged.

However, the the election result took the Bush administration by surprise because almost no one in the US government had expected that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad would win the election with overwhelming votes. Earlier, the generally favored former President Hasheni Rafsanjani suffered a tragic defeat, so his influence in the Iranian political circles will plunge.

Although what kind of policy Ahmadinejad will take toward the US after his assumption of office will remain to be observed, the series of his remarks directed against the US after the winning had made US officials feel like thorns on the back.

"Iran is on its way of development and advance, and on this path it totally does not need the United States."

"Iran is willing to cooperate with any country in the world, which is not hostile to Tehran."

Based on its analysis, the International Herald Tribune predicted that this summer, the Bush administration will come into "long-term and fierce conflicts" with the new Iranian government and many unpredictable variables will emerge.

Tougher attitude on the nuclear issue

The Bush administration will first encounter the new Iranian government on the nuclear issue.

At the first news conference held after his triumphant election on June 26, Ahmadinejad stressed that Iran would not give up the already acquired nuclear technologies. He said Iran will continue negotiations on the nuke issue with the European Union, but at the same time it will safeguard national interests and the right to use nuclear energy. Meanwhile, if the EU wants to win trust from Iran, the bloc must first perform its commitments.

Analysts held that after his assumption of office, Ahmadinejad will continue the principle of holding negotiations with the EU, but it is likely that he will take a tougher position. Under such circumstances, voices calling for adjustment to policy toward Iran have also been heard inside the Bush administration.

The International Herald Tribune reported, earlier, on solving the Iranian nuclear issue, there existed both hawkish and dovish positions inside the US government. The Bush administration finally took the dovish policy of supporting the EU-Iran negotiations. But, if Iran adopts an intransigent stance on the nuke issue, hawkish voices will grow louder in Washington.

In fact, after Ahmadinejad's win, the Bush administration has started to study possibilities for adjusting its Iran policy. The White House, the Department of State and US Treasury Department began to jointly formulate a plan in a bid to intercept ships designed to provide Iran with advanced weapons and technologies.

The International Herald Tribune commented that apart from the trial of strengths on the nuclear issue, subtle change will emerge in the US-Iran relations in the counter-terrorism field along with Ahmadinejad's assumption of office.

The Bush administration once and again charged Iran with "evil axis" and "outpost of tyranny", regarding Tehran as a major enemy in the US anti-terrorism war.

However, in the past several months, the Iranian government has taken some actions to ease US-Iranian relations on the anti-terror issue. Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi promised during his recent visit to Iraq that Iran will tighten security in border areas to prevent illegal militants from entering Iraq.

According to analysts, if the new Iranian government keeps a cooperative attitude on the anti-terror issue, Washington will be relieved of much pressure; if Washington continues to put pressure on Tehran with the "big anti-terror stick", then, as long as the Iranian government adopts an attitude of turning a blind eye to the militants who cross the border to enter Iraq, the Americans will thus suffer a great deal.

US democracy plan challenged

The troubles new Iranian government can bring to Bush are far more than these. It is commented that Ahmadinejad's victory is a heavy blow to the "Greater Middle East Plan" carefully drawn up by the US government.

The Bush administration hopes that it can alter the political domain of the Middle East region through "expediting the democratic process" and has achieved some results in Iraq, Lebanon and Palestine, but Ahmadinejad's victory has made it suffice to cast all these results to the winds.

An Egyptian expert on Iran points out that Iran is a very influential country in the Middle East region. As a representative of the conservatives, Ahmadinejad's winning the presidential post through democratic election is undoubtedly like giving the political conservative forces in the Middle East region a shot in the arm. At the same time, to some extent it also indicates that the conservative political forces in the Middle East region still enjoy fairly wide popular support. Especially when the United States is eager to "promote the sale of democracy" in the Middle East region, such sales promotion will contrarily fire the resentment of the local public. This antagonistic sentiment means a fatal blow to the pro-West reformists in Mideast countries, the just concluded Iranian presidential election serves as a convincing example.

By People's Daily Online