China: Is it a threat, or an opportunity? (II)

Thus far, China's development, instead of harming neighboring countries, has brought benefits to most neighbors.

Host: Will China's development and rejuvenation inevitably bring challenges to the interests of neighboring countries and the United States?

Dr. Minxin Pei: China's development is not achieved at the cost of the losses of neighboring countries and the United States. Up to now, China's development, far from harming most neighboring countries, has brought benefits to most neighbors. Except Japan that has economically benefited from China's development, but psychologically regards China as a threat to itself, most Asian countries think that they can accept China's development, can coexist peacefully with China and can benefit from China's development. As regards the situation in the United States, the matter is even more difficult to handle, from the economic perspective, the United States undoubtedly has been benefited quite a lot from China's development. But whether or not the United States can accept China as an equal partner remains an outstanding problem. Currently, it appears that most American people have not got prepared to accept China as an equal partner. The reasons for this are very complicated as long as the United States hopes to maintain its status as the only leading big power in the world, it will treat China's development from the viewpoint of zero and game.

Prof. Joseph Nye: As long as China's development is peaceful development, the development will not be achieved at the cost of neighboring countries or the United States. The world economy is not a kind of zero and game, other countries around the world can benefit themselves from China's economic growth. If China develops good and non-threatening relationships with its neighboring countries and the United States, then such relations will not lead to the problem of military conflicts. I believe the program for East Asian stability can benefit the three sides in the triangular relations of China, the United States and Japan.

Prof. Qu Xing: China's development has provided many opportunities for the development of neighboring countries. China's performance as a responsible country during the financial crisis of Southeast Asia in 1997 and the helping hand it extended to some Asian countries when they were hit by tsunami disaster last year are convincing evidence proving that China's development not only doesn't harm the interests of neighboring countries, on the contrary, it brings benefits to these neighbors.

In the field of energy resources, one view holds that after China is developed, it needs to consume more energy sources, and China's purchase of huge amounts of energy resources in the world could lead to a price hike of energy resources, so China could cause a threat to the energy supply to other countries. As a matter of fact, whether the skyrocketing of the current international oil price is due to China's participating in purchase or is caused by the Iraq war, the answer should be crystal clear. Secondly, the contradiction between the non-renewability of oil resources and the increase in global demand for energy resources cannot be avoided by the international community, human society must seek new energy substitutes, otherwise, even if China does not buy even one barrel of oil from the international market, the exhaustion of world oil resources is only a matter of time. Furthermore, as a member of the international community, China, of course, should have the right, like other countries, to participate in cooperation in the field of international energy resources and get its due benefit therefrom. The theory holding that China's participation in the allocation of international resources means a threat is utterly ridiculous.

China is not an opponent fond of adventure, it does not like German emperor which historically constituted a threat to any countries as he did to Britain.

Dr. Finkelstein: Although people use the "rise" of Germany, Japan and even the United States as examples to predict possible emergence of major security problems which can yet be regarded as a meaningful academic exercise, to me, a future prediction made on the basis of historical determinism is a hardly acceptable topic, because the background of the current international system differs, after all, vastly from that time.

Prof. Joseph Nye: China is not an opponent fond of adventure, it doesn't like German emperor historically constituted a threat to any other countries as he did to Britain. Making such a historical comparison itself is defective.

Academician M L.Titarenko: I don't think that the history of Germany's rise would repeat itself in China in one form or another. Any country has its own unique experience of development and rise. The peak of the rises of such countries as Britain, France, Germany, the United States or Japan has been over. The rise and fall of the Soviet Union can provide a concrete, beneficial lesson.

Dr. Minxin Pei: I don't think that Germany's rise is a reliable object of reference for predicting China's future. Leaders of Germany committed many colossal strategic mistakes (Of course British and French leaders also committed many mistakes), and thus far, Chinese and American leaders are also striving to avoid committing the same mistakes. Although we should not neglect the structural strengths that may plunge China, the United States (as well as Japan) into strategic conflicts, conflicts between China and the United States, however, can entirely be avoided.

Along with the evolution of time China has become increasingly affluent and multiplied, the possibility for China and the United States to maintain friendly relations will grow.

Prof. Qu Xing: I think there is some truth in such worries. According to the view of structuralism, the relations between various action subjects on the same stage are mutually structured. There is no insurmountable gulf between friend and foe. If the West regard China as opponent and adopt measures to deal with China as they deal with opponent, that will force China to adopt countermeasures, the alternate escalation of these measures would finally lead the bilateral relationship to an irreparable extent. The only measure for the alleviation of this danger is establishment of mutual trust. Precisely because of this, China has made consistent efforts to establish various kinds of constructive strategic partnerships with main countries around the world and set up mutual trust.

Prof. Joseph Nye: 10 years ago when I assumed office in the Pentagon, I invented such a remark: If you treat China as an enemy, then you will guarantee you will get an enemy in the future. That is a stupid stance. Although viewing China as friend will not necessarily guarantee the obtainment of friendship, if the two countries work together in this aspect, it will be possible for us to bring about the result of friendship. Along with the evolution of time, China has become increasingly affluent and more and more multiplied, the possibility for China and the United States to maintain friendly relationship will grow.

Dr. Minxin Pei: There is not the slightest doubt about this. One thing worthwhile contemplating is that this parlance is a two-way formulation. China should be careful not to examine everything with a skeptical eye as Western countries do. If China asserts that the West is regarding it as enemy under the circumstance in which the West has not confirmed China as enemy, then China will make itself really the enemy of the West.

For those who are utterly hostile to China, even a China that is not in the rise will also be a threat in their eyes.

Dr. Minxin Pei: Firstly, "China threat" or China opportunity depends on who you are. If you are a production worker of a Western country, then China implies more threat and not opportunity. But if you are a consumer or an investor, then China means more opportunities. But to be honest, China's rise has up till now provided more opportunities and not threat. The opportunities provided by China are visible and tangible and the threat it constitutes is potential, faraway and may be fictitious. Secondly, "opportunity" or "threat" also depends on your fundamental evaluation of China, such evaluation is irrelevant to China's development. For those who are fundamentally hostile to China, even a China that is not in the rise will also be a threat in their eyes. As far as I myself is concerned, I believe China's development has brought about more opportunities, and will certainly create more opportunities.

Dr. Finkelstein: It is my view that US-China relationship has currently become so complicated in so many facets, that whether China is seen as "threat" or as "opportunity" entirely depends on what problems people are concerned with. I believe that if friends of China simply stick to the view that the US government or the American people usually view China as a threat, and always presume the US intention from the worst angle, they actually render disservice to Sino-US relationship. On the other hand, if those Americans who only pay attention to the field of US-China conflicts and turn a blind eye to the fact about the development of US-China reciprocal relationship in various fields, then they will likewise render disservice to US-China ties. The crucial matter is that both the United States and China must absolutely avoid attempting to simplify US-China relationship, one of the most complicated ties in international order, and avoid falling into the single dimensional "militarist" mentality.

Prof. Joseph Nye: I think the opportunities brought by China outweigh the threat it constitutes. China's economic growth has become a main factor in the global economy, at the same time, China has rendered help in bringing about global political stability.

Academician M L.Titarenko: China's rapid development inevitably demands other countries (also China itself) to suit the change in China's role, they should correctly and realistically understand the new part played by China and they should discover from China's new role their respective profits. China is now faced with a very subtle and important task: to achieve a new balance of interests in the international order on the basis of developing mutually beneficial and complementary cooperation.

Most Americans still hope to realize peace and reciprocity with China in the future.

Prof. Joseph Nye: I think most Americans still hope to realize peace and reciprocity with China in the future. Just as former President Bill Clinton has once said, compared to a prosperous and democratic China, we should be more afraid of a poor and weak China.

Dr. Minxin Pei: Among the stratum of American policy elite (officials, experts, scholars and businessmen), the viewpoints about "China threat" are rather divided. But I can feel the slender majority of them still believe that China is not a threat. The American general public have little understanding about this question, so they are easily subject to the strong influence of the media. Unfortunately, the US media have not formed a mature and meticulous understanding of the China issue.

China should learn to work with Western media, helping them get more knowledge about China. Senior Chinese officials should also learn to improve China's image by aid of Western media. The most important thing is that the Chinese government should be very prudent in handling internal and external affairs, so as to show to the outsiders that China does not constitute a threat.

Dr. Finkelstein: "The revival of China" obviously gives very great uncertainty to the outside world. This uncertainty originates from such a reality: In contemporary history, there has never been such a precedent: The strong vigor of the Chinese economy makes its global economic benefit associated with global political interests, implying that as a participant in international order, China is required to undertake greater responsibility.

The reason why China's outside world has uncertain psychology about this is because that some countries cannot affirm how China will use its own economic and political influence in the global community to realize what kind of aim; because relatively speaking, in its global participation in various international mechanisms for regulating international political and economic activities, China is still a new hand. In terms of this, the top level strategic dialogs on global questions started recently between the United States and China is a new development worth our welcome.

I do not think that China is a big power pursuing expansion militarily.

Prof. Joseph Nye: I don't think that China is a big power pursuing expansion militarily. My main worry lies on the Taiwan issue. It's best for the Chinese mainland to use soft strength to attract Taiwan, because "honey can glue more flies than vinegar".

Dr. Minxin Pei: Unfortunately, the standard of Western countries for evaluating threat is built on the foundation of strength and not on intention. So when China's strength grows, other countries are liable to treat its development with more doubts and fear. In terms of this, Japan and the United States predict and act in accordance with the theory of international relations.

Prof. Qu Xing: Here I raise a significant question in line with Dr. Pei's logic: The United States is the most powerful country in the world, it has the military ability enough to destroy the world for dozens of times. Then, is the United States the biggest threat to the world?

The Taiwan issue is the core difference between China and the United States. The Taiwan issue is China's internal affair, the current circumstance is that the United States is interfering in China's internal affair and is threatening China on the Taiwan issue. On this issue, there does not exist the problem of China threatening the United States. The constitution of any sovereign state stipulates that the government is obligated to adopt measures to safeguard the country's unification and territorial integrity. The United States is no exception. So, what form China adopts on the Taiwan issue absolutely has nothing to do with whether China is threatening other countries. Regarding the kind of attitude adopted by China on the Taiwan issue as the criterion for judging whether China is posing threats is a gross mistake in methodology. If the United States does not interfere in China's internal affairs on the Taiwan issue, there is no need at all for it to worry about the eruption of military conflict with China.

Academician M L.Titarenko: Certain forces deliberately provoke and agitate the "China threat theory", their aim is to contain China's development and the growth of its international influence. China's current foreign policy, China's efforts to safeguard and strengthen the authoritativeness of the United Nations and China's contribution made to develop fair and multi-polarized international order, as well as China's performance of actively observing the principles of peaceful coexistence and the norms of international law--all these prove that the leadership of the People's Republic of China adopt a realistic and responsible attitude toward problems related to China's development and its global role.

Part I; Part II

By People's Daily Online