"It won't go too far whatever assumption is made on the attack that may be caused by emergent disaster." This is the summary of the "September 11" by a risk manager in the Wall Street. After that terrorist attack, many American risk management experts are convinced that however adequate preparation you have made against possible future natural and man-made calamities, there will invariably omissions and deficiencies.

Terrorist attacks are a man-made thing. A person's heart is the most incomprehensible in the world, not to say terrorists, because many of them are ruffians. Therefore, if terrorists were determined to make trouble, they would invariably start attacking in the weak link and you would be caught off guard. A case in point is the chain explosions in London. However, while guarding against terrorist attacks, people should not forget that natural disaster has the same "atrocious cruelties". Sometimes, it even has a greater impact than terrorist attack.

Natural disaster is no more "civilized" than terrorists, although it has not any "organization", nor does it have strong political or religious appeals. It, however, has a ferocious "eyesight", and it would invariably look for opportunity everywhere to give humans a telling blow. New Orleans being hit by hurricane this time indicates that human beings who exert themselves to conquer Nature are still unable to tame it, and they even fail to have a good knowledge about the temper of Nature. Humankind remains very weak in face of Nature.

New Orleans was thrown into confusion after the subsidence of hurricane. Experts in various fields have begun to make careful analyses of the cause of the natural calamity. However, no matter how the general public has been complaining, and what analyses experts have made, an inescapable fact is: The consequences resulting from the disaster are not only beyond the imagination of ordinary people, but also have surpassed the earlier predictions by many experts and government officials.

The hurricane in New Orleans reminds us of the idea about "risk management". Before "September 11", risk management had become an emerging specialty. US federal and local governments and many large enterprises have set up special risk management departments in which professionals are charged with coordinating the organization, prevention and coping with risks.

Risk management roughly includes five-faceted contents: first is to organize a specialized contingent for risk management; second is to look for the weak links for guarding against risks; third is to make predictions and analyses of future risks; fourth is to work out plans for coping with risks; and fifth is to organize and implement emergency rescuing plan at the time of the occurrence of risks. It can thus be seen that the emphasis of risk management is on "management". The reason why attention is paid to "management" is that it means to cope with, and not to uproot risks. The primary objective is to reduce losses and enhance capability to tackle natural and man-made calamities.

After the hurricane in New Orleans was over, people would conscientiously sum up experiences and draw on lessons as they did in the past. But one must not think that with the summary of experiences and lessons, one can set his mind at rest, and leisurely deal with the next disaster. After the occurrence of the "September 11", there were such famous remarks circulating among risk management experts in the Wall Street: "In the past, we invariably tried to draw on lessons from history. However, risk management cannot rely completely on history, for you must make assumption of an event that had never occurred before."

In the final analysis, it is still this old saying: It won't go too far to make whatever assumption about the impact that may be caused by emergency disasters. A perfect preparation is to constantly draw on lessons, constantly discover weak links, constantly upgrade capability to cope with emergencies and most effectively reduce losses to the maximum. This truth applies to all, without exception, either to the United States, the number one power in the world, or to other countries.

This article by senior editor Ding Gang with People's Daily is carried on the Global Times, September 5, and translated by People's Daily Online