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Home >> Opinion
UPDATED: 14:53, November 22, 2005
"Collapse of the Soviet Union forecasted": Interview (II)
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Photo:File photo shows Lyndon H. LaRouche, Jr. is making a speech in October, 2005, in Washington, US.
File photo shows Lyndon H. LaRouche, Jr. is making a speech in October, 2005, in Washington, US.
Lyndon H. LaRouche, Jr. is an American political activist and founder of various political organizations in the United States and elsewhere. He is perhaps best known for being a "perennial candidate" for U.S. Presidency, having set a minor record for most consecutive attempts at the office by running eight times; Harold Stassen ran for President nine times, but not consecutively. LaRouche has run for the Democratic nomination for President in every election year since 1980, including in 1992 while he was in prison. Yet he and his "LaRouche movement" have gained only limited electoral support, although he has received some support in Democratic presidential primaries.

Although he has no formal qualifications, LaRouche has written extensively on economic, scientific, political, and cultural topics. Critics consider him to be a conspiracy theorist and political attention-seeker. He is frequently described as an extremist, cult leader, a communist, a fascist, and an anti-Semite, all of which he denies. LaRouche is regarded by his followers as a brilliant individual who for political reasons has been unfairly persecuted.

In 1988 LaRouche was sentenced to fifteen years imprisonment for conspiracy, mail fraud, and tax code violations. He continued his political activities from behind bars. He was released in 1994 on parole after having served five years.

LaRouche lists his formal position as a director and contributing editor of the Executive Intelligence Review News Service, a core part of the LaRouche movement.

Recently Yong Tang, People's Daily Online Washington-based staff writer, has conducted an exclusive interview with LaRouche at his home in Virginia.


Yong Tang: Someone said that you are a good fortune-teller?

LaRouche: I'm a good forecaster.

Yong Tang: Yes, a good forecaster for the world economy, and you have made nine forecasts of major trends in the U.S. economy, of which eight forecasts have been fulfilled, and the ninth is in the process of being confirmed. How can you make correct forecasts?

LaRouche: It's a matter of science. What we teach as economics, what people tend to believe in universities around the world is nonsense. And the other factor is, when people forecast, they forecast what they wish, not what could be. That's the problem. First of all, they're incompetent. Their incompetence is increased by the fact that they are wishful. Also, they are small-minded. The typical American today is very small-minded. He thinks only of what he can experience in the next immediate future. He thinks about being rich. He thinks about this or that. He doesn't think about his grandchildren or the world he is creating after him. We used to think about our grandchildren. We used to think two or three generations ahead. We don't do that anymore. So they don't think about building the future. So therefore they're waving what they want to forecast, they're like gamblers. They want to forecast victory at the gambling tables. That's their mentality.

Corporate business is a gambling table. It is not an enterprise. It is not a business with a purpose. In the old days, somebody would have a business. The business would have a speciality. Their purpose was to be successful at that business and to have the business survive for the coming generations. But with the corporation, you have people who invest in a stock for one or two days. There is no real long-term commitment to doing something. There is a short-term commitment to becoming rich, but not a short-term commitment to building the future. They're always looking for a short-term get-rich, they're always looking for ME, not for what they do for the country. Therefore, forecasting is based on these kinds of ideas. But the world doesn't work that way.

Yong Tang: So far have you made any wrong predictions?

LaRouche: No, because I understand world economy. And I understand what mistakes are. My forecasts have involved the mistakes that are made by the incumbent authorities. I've simply not forecast much. Really I've forecast what the results of their mistakes will be, and their mistakes were obvious to me and the consequences of their mistakes are obvious to me.

Yong Tang: Someone said you successfully forecasted the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1988.

LaRouche: Actually I forecasted that in 1983.

Yong Tang: In 1983? How did you forecast that?

LaRouche: I was involved within a back-channel function with President Reagan. I had had this idea about how to get out of this ballistic missile problem, to work our way out by a new policy of defense. And I thought that with the Brezhnev period, it was possible that if the United States made a certain offer, the Soviet Union might accept it. And that is, instead of having nuclear missiles barrage we could have a system under which we would cooperate to develop systems that would be able to prevent nuclear barrage attacks. If we cooperate, we will share the technology and use the technology for other purposes rather than military as well. I thought the Soviet Union had an economic crisis internally, an economic crisis that was building.

Yong Tang: How did you know that?

LaRouche: Because the Soviet economy in the military was very successful, because they used science. But the Soviet economy in the civilian sector was terrible because they didn't use science. The typical case in the Soviet Union was the fact that you bring in a new machine tool but they wouldn't use it. They want the old machine tool. So there was this opposition to technological progress. And the Soviet bureaucracy in industry was very stupid. They were very bureaucratic.

If the Soviet Union could stimulate the economic development to break the failure of the private sector, it could have developed quite successfully based on using science for the economy in the way they were using it for the military. And if USSR and USA cooperated, we could do that. We could bring nations together by cooperation about this idea, a technology-driver to improve the economy of all nations by technology, making technology available. Then we could bring about peace on the basis of the interest in common technology. So I was engaged in this. President Reagan was interested in my idea. So I became then a back-channel with the Soviet Government under President Reagan. I was just a private individual, but I was working both ways. I would meet with the Soviet representatives, I would meet with the U.S. representatives, and we would talk. It was exploratory, just to see whether agreement was possible.

So in 1982 and 1983, I had this discussion with the Soviet Government officials. And one day they came in and said, "Andropov says no." This was in February of 1983. I said, ``You've got to change that. If they continue with the present military policy, the Soviet system will collapse for economic reasons within five years. Then the next month Reagan made the speech that made the offer. I told the Soviet Government officials if Reagan makes the speech and makes the offer and you reject, Soviet collapse is what will happen. Reagan made the offer publicly and the Soviet rejected it. Andropov didn't even negotiate. Soviet officials tried to talk to him. They said, "talk with Reagan. He made an offer. Talk with him.'' ``Nyet!'' And they knew better. OK, I won't make any more suggestions. And that was it. And so that's how it happened. The facts were clear to anyone who looked at the situation. And Soviet collapse did happen then.

By Yong Tang, People's Daily Online Washington-based Staff Writer


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