Bush's 'victory strategy' does not sell

In response to his war critics, US President George W. Bush on Wednesday gave an eloquent speech and a 35-page policy paper entitled "Our National Strategy for Victory in Iraq," which is seen by many as containing no new points or guarantee for victory in that warn-torn country.

In the speech delivered at the US Naval Academy in Maryland, Bush once again vowed to "stay the course," and said the US troops won't leave Iraq without what he called a "complete victory."

On the most debated issue of when and how the country could bring its soldiers back home from Iraq, the president only said the US military and civilian presence will change as "conditions improve" in Iraq.

The "victory strategy" paper released by the White House earlier in the day seemed to have no idea about when they would see this so-called imminent triumph. "No war has ever been won on a timetable," it declared.

Critics say the "victory strategy" is, in fact, a repackaging of Bush's standpoints on Iraq rather than a new formula to solve the dilemma. They see it as being aimed at offsetting increasing calls for the United States to pull out from Iraq. With lots of problems remaining unsolved, the "victory strategy" is no guarantee for an ultimate victory on the ground, the critics said.

Before leading the country into the war, Bush presented a rosy picture to Americans for a new Iraq where democracy would flourish and terrorism would have no place. The logic was that the United States would ultimately be safer.

However, two-and-a-half years have passed since the Saddam regime was toppled - and still, insurgency is rampant.

More than 2,100 US soldiers have been killed in Iraq, and another 17,000 wounded.

This sober truth is generating pressure on Bush's war policy. A mid-November CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll found the president's overall approval rating hit the lowest point of 37 per cent.

Many US lawmakers, too, have turned more critical on the issue, asking the Bush administration to clarify its plans for Iraq, if it has any.

The Bush administration is also facing challenges from representatives of major Iraqi ethnic and religious groups, who met recently in Cairo calling for US withdrawal and even endorsing their countrymen's "legitimate right of resistance" to foreign occupation.

Despite the official denial of any pullout plans, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said last week that the training of Iraqi soldiers had advanced so far that the current number of US troops in the country probably would not be needed much longer.

On Monday, the Pentagon also acknowledged the "growing consensus" for reducing the US troop level in Iraq.

As the US military continues to hand over security responsibilities to Iraqi security forces, it will be possible to further reduce American troops beyond the baseline of 138,000 US soldiers, said the Pentagon's chief spokesman Lawrence DiRita.

In his own speech made on Wednesday, Bush said over 120 Iraqi army and police combat battalions are ready to fight on their own, while 80 other Iraqi battalions are fighting side by side with coalition forces.

The figures are in sharp contrast with those given by George Casey, the top US commander in Iraq. Casey revealed in September that only one Iraqi battalion was able to operate completely independent of US forces.

The Los Angeles Times recently reported that the administration is probably using its acknowledgement of the capabilities of Iraqi troops to lay the groundwork for a possible drawdown or withdrawal of US troops from Iraq.

Any possible change in Bush's Iraq policy largely hinges on two political events, according to New York Times reporter David Sanger.

One is the upcoming parliamentary elections in Iraq on December 15, and the other is the US congressional elections next year.

The Iraqi elections are seen as a test for Bush's policy in the troubled Arab country, depending on what will come out of it - more stability or more violence.

At home, the US voters' opinions on the war will reshape some thoughts on the administration's policy in the elections next year.

In a recent report, Andrew Terrill and Conrad Crane, two military researchers at the US Army War College, summarized the US position in Iraq as "we can't stay, we can't leave, we can't fail."

Some observers have predicted an eventual US pullout is something inevitable, and that there will be a very huge price to pay.

Source: China Daily