The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences predicted that China's economy would grow by 9.4 percent in 2005 and nearly 9 percent in 2006.

The CASS published the 2006 version of blue books on Dec. 21 about the country's social and economic development. The book says China's agriculture sector will increase by 5 percent in 2006, the same speed in 2005. The secondary industry and the tertiary industry will rise 10.2 percent and 7.5 percent respectively in 2006, also very close to the 11 percent and 7.4 percent growth rates in 2005.

Li Jinhua, researcher with the CASS who has led the team preparing the book for economy said China's economy had experienced three three-year high-speed growth since the country launched the reform and opening-up strategy. The year of 2005 is the third year of the latest round starting from 2003. A slowdown took place following the previous upsurges. There is argument about the economic situation next year.

The book has found that for ordinary Chinese, the high cost of housing, education and medical service are their biggest worries in life. The 5.6 percent hike for housing prices is much higher than the average inflation. Parents see the bills for their kids' education swell at a rate of several times as much as the growth of their income. In rural areas, disease and education have become a new cause of poverty.

It also warns against risks of emerging bad loans generated by the 150 billion to 200 billion yuan bank loans granted to public colleges. Preliminary statistics show that some colleges owe 1 to 2 billion yuan to banks.

The book pointed out high education institutions have so far failed to improve their management and quality in the past 10 years when the number of colleges doubled to some 2,000. The debt problem has been increasingly imminent in their expansion process. Some are even making loss.

A survey involved in the book reports that 65.7 percent of Chinese still don't have any form of health care insurance and about one-fourth of respondents have given up medical treatment because they cannot afford it.

According to the book, the basic health insurance had covered 133.41 million urban workers by the end of September this year. And 72.6 percent farmers, or 163 million, had been included in the Cooperative Medical Scheme by end of June, 2005. However, the health care system is available to only some one third of Chinese nationals.

The book forecasts that China's population will peak at less than 1.6 billion by 2050, which is different from previous projection that the peak will fall in 2050 with 1.6 billion. The new forecast is based on the latest census results.

By People's Daily Online