Since Iran resumed its uranium enrichment program on January 10th, the Iranian nuclear issue has been 'hot' again. Due to the big gap between Iran and the EU and the US in their respective stance on the issue, a new round of nuclear crisis is impending and whether sanctions should be imposed on Iran is also under discussion. Meanwhile, US hawks have said that they won't rule out the use of military force. If a war really starts, no doubt, it will bring about serious consequences to the world peace and development while the United States will also face huge security risks and pay a high price.

Why? First of all, Iran is not Iraq. Iran's national and military strength is very different from that of ante-war Iraq. At present, domestic situation in Iran is very good. Iranian people are united. Thus, military strike on Iran won't cause a revolution in the country, on the contrary, it can only stimulate people's greater patriotic enthusiasm. Militarily, Iran is another strong country second only to Israel in the Middle East region. It has modernized missiles and air strike technology and capable to block the Strait of Hormuz and destroy all the oil wells and pipelines in the region. Iran is the fourth oil producer in the world, producing 4 million barrels of crude oil every day. Iraq didn't have these conditions then.

Second, US' involvement in Iraq and other difficulties make it unable to launch a whole lot war against Iran. At present, it's not a good time for the US to strike Iran. The US hasn't realized its goal of reshaping Iraq, on the contrary, it falls in predicament and couldn't withdraw immediately. Since Katrina storm stroke south of America, domestic demand of withdrawing troops from Iraq is higher and higher and has constituted a great pressure on the US government.

Third, the strike will rouse mid-east Muslim countries' anti-American sentiment. Scandals such as ill-treatment of prisoners in Iraq by the US soldiers and the Guantanamo prison have made Muslims disappointed at the US army and even hate them. Many mild Middle East countries are actually on a cross. Iran is a united Shiite Muslim country which has great influence on Shiite Muslim in Mid-east region as well as in the world. The war will unite all the Muslim countries to fight against America. This will be a result that any American who has a strategic thinking would like to avoid.

Fourth, the attitudes of the powers are not unanimous. The current world situation is not the same as that after 9.11 incident. Except a few countries that support the US, most countries advocate to seek a peaceful solution but not a military action. British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw has repeatedly stressed that nobody is discussing invasion of Iran.

'Iran is not Iraq'. NATO spokesman told reporters that NATO hasn't talked anything about military strike on Iran.

Fifth, world energy can't bear the losses brought by the war. Oil price fluctuation in 2005 has shown that any changes in the Middle East region will disturb the world economy. The Guardian quoted Iranian Finance Minister Davoud Danesh-Jafari as saying that any economic sanctions against Iran due to its nuclear program would lead to a drastic increase in oil prices from which several countries would suffer. The minister had said that Iran was located in a strategic region and any alteration of its political and economic status quo would spark a regional crisis and drastically push up oil prices 'harming western interests more than Iran's'.

The report quoted an analyst as saying that once Iran stopped producing crude oil, the oil price will likely rise to 100 US dollars per barrel. This will be a nightmare for the world economy, and America is no exception.

Thus, to solve the Iranian nuclear issue through talks will be the only wise choice.

The article by Wang Xinjun, a Phd in Military Theory and Strategy Department of the Academy of Military Science is published on the front page of People's Daily Overseas Edition, Jan. 20, and is translated by People's Daily Online.