"Greater Middle East" vs. "New Middle East"

The Israel-Lebanon conflicts have lasted for 23 days. From the Rome Conference to the United Nations Security Council, nearly the entire international community calls for an immediate ceasefire. However, the United States, the only country who can control Israel does not agree. In 1993 and 1996, violent clashes broke out twice between Hezbollah and Israel. Under the mediation of the United States, the two sides were able to reach a cease-fire agreement in one or two weeks in both clashes. Now, both intensity and scale of the current conflict have exceeded the above two, but why did the United States act out of character? This is directly related to the US government's manner in solving the problem of the Middle East.

After the "9/11" incident, US President George W. Bush believed that the fundamental problem of the Middle East is the lack of real democracy. According to Bush, only a democratic system can prevent the emergence of terrorism and ensure a permanent peace. In November 2003, Bush introduced his main concept of establishing democracy in the Middle East and his plans on Iraqi post-war reconstruction. During the G-8 summit in June 2004, Bush formally proposed the "Greater Middle East (GME) Initiative", calling for democratic transformation of the Middle East countries. With the support of the United States, a parliamentary election was held in Lebanon from May to June, 2005. In July the government of Lebanon was established. On December 15th, the 2005 Iraq parliamentary election was held and the Iraqi National Unity Government was set up in May 2006. Moreover, Palestine held the Palestinian Legislative Council election on January 25th 2006 and set up the Hamas government in March.

However, many democratic elections did not please the Bush administration. On the contrary, the US was indescribably disappointed with these elections. Although the Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Saniora is pro-American, his cabinet includes two ministers from Hezbollah, which as a terrorist in US eyes, is in close contact with the two axis of evil -- Iran and Syria. Moreover, Iraq was only able to establish its government five months after the election. In its new government, there are both representatives of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution (SCIRI) and supporters of the anti-America group Muqtada al-Sadr. In addition, the US was most worried about the Palestinian government. At the very beginning, Israel was strongly opposed to Hamas' participation in the elections. It was the Bush Administration who has persuaded Israel to make concessions. However, out of US expectation, Fatah suffered a crushing defeat in the election and Hamas won a full victory. What's more thrilling to the United States is that with the formation of Hamas government, an anti-American axis zone has been formed in the Middle East covering the area from Palestine to Lebanon, then to Syria and Iran. Objectively, the "Greater Middle East (GME) Initiative" only made the Americans eat their own bitter fruit.

After the Lebanon-Israel conflicts broke out, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice claimed that ceasefire is useless. The key is to build a "new Middle East". Although neither Bush nor Rice explained the connotation of the "new Middle East" concept, people can make sure about two aspects of it. The first is to change the rules of the game. Hamas and Hezbollah have been in a stalemate with Israel in the past. This time the United States hopes that Israel can completely defeat Hamas and Hezbollah and eradicate the possibility of any future provocation made by Hamas and Hezbollah. In fact, as early as June 25th when Hamas attacked Israeli forces, the Bush Administration had acquiesced Israel to severely hit back. Second, the "new Middle East" strategy will strip away the anti-American axis and wipe up Hamas and Hezbollah, so as to prevent Syria and Iran from using Hamas and Hezbollah as excuses to give offense, which, as a result, will probably threaten the US strategic objectives and interests in the Middle East.

It can be said that the "new Middle East" concept does not mean the conclusion of the "Greater Middle East (GME) Initiative". It only shows that the Bush Administration was aware of the defects and problems of the "Greater Middle East (GME) Initiative". Introducing the "new Middle East" concept aims to remedy or eliminate these problems. However, the Middle East issue is not a matter that can be decided or controlled by the United States alone. The "new Middle East" is very likely to be a wishful thinking of the United States.

The author is associate professor of the Institute of International Relations of Peking University and the article is translated by People's Daily Online