Although there are signs the Israel-Lebanon conflict might be over, the international community is from being able to relax. The world remains fearful that Resolution 1701, passed by the UN Security Council, will not be able to secure even a fragile peace. With Iran's own deadline, August 31, just around the corner, it remains to be seen whether they can be persuaded to adopt Resolution 1696. If they do not, how will the United States react?

Recently, Seymour Hersh, a winner of the Pulitzer Prize for journalism, published an article highlighting the relationship between the Israel-Lebanon conflict and military action the US is planning to take against Iran. Hersh took advantage of his close ties with US and Israeli intelligence and cited a Middle East expert (who wished to remain anonymous) who said that the Israelis had devised a plan to attack Hezbollah -- and shared it with Bush administration officials -- well before the July 12 kidnappings.

It's quite odd really that such an intense and expansive conflict stemmed from the kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers. At the beginning of the conflict, US President George W. Bush bent down to bedrock and aimed his spearhead at "Lebanese Hezbollah and its supporters Iran and Syria". He accused them of being the "root" of the unstable situation in the Middle East. Later, United States Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice arrived in Israel to proceed with mediation. The US was deliberately slow to put pressure on the Israeli government to end the conflict, and for this they have been criticized.

The US' reluctance to intervene suggests that they had deliberately chosen to turn a blind eye to Israel's attack on Hezbollah as a part of strategic and tactical preparation for its planned military action against Iran. If the US attacks Iran, Israel stands to become a major target for Iran to retaliate against. Hezbollah, which is currently supported by Iran, would be Israel's biggest threat. Israel opted to launch a massive pre-emptive strike again Hezbollah using the pretext of the missing soldiers. This will significantly reduce constraints on the US if it moves forward with its planned military action against Iran. Hezbollah is known to have solid underground missile storage depots and command posts in southern Lebanon. Israeli experience in carrying out air raids on Hezbollah strongholds may be useful for the US if it attacks Iran's underground nuclear facilities.

According to Hersh, following the announcement that Iran would develop nuclear technology earlier this year, senior officials from the United States and Israeli Air Force began working on a plan of attack. Israel and the United States had the opportunity to shoot two birds with one stone �C taking out Hezbollah and then Iran. This would allow Israel to remove one of its biggest problems, and the US to test the effectiveness of its air raid strategies by gaining experience in the conflict. US officials urged Israel to strike the first blow as soon as it had decided its position. Considering the limited term of the Bush Administration, the US is anxious to press forward so as to have as much time as possible to evaluate its air strike strategies against Iran. In short, both the US and Israel regard the conflict as "a cheap war with many benefits".

However, the results of the conflict between Israel and Lebanon have not been satisfactory for the US. Hezbollah surprised them with its internal strength; Israel has not claimed the easy victory it expected. In fact, Hezbollah has gained credibility in the Arab world and Israel has been severely criticized by the international community for massive civilian casualties. Maybe this is a warning to the United States not to attack Iran: the 'weak' are often not weak at all, and the 'powerful' are often in an indefensible position. However, some figures in the US government have drawn a typically positive conclusion, praising Israel's 'success'.

The United States must consider these factors before it attacks Iran: could the US economy sustain high oil prices? Once war breaks out, there is no doubt that oil supplies with be cut off. Are the American people willing to sacrifice more soldiers in the Middle East? Air strikes would not solve all the problems. The US would eventually rely on ground forces to continue the fight. Would the Iraq war become even more chaotic as a result? According to reports, US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfield, has made it clear that he does not want to launch another war.

There are also reports that Iran foresaw attacks on Hezbollah and is now prepared for US air raids. It is predicted that the real crisis in the Middle East will occur if Iran rejects UN Security Council Resolution 1696 in late August. The Israel-Lebanon conflict has been suspended. But was the fighting simply a prelude to another war?

By People's Daily Online