US to catch her breath in military expansion

When Israel attacked Lebanon a month ago, some Western strategists believed that the United States was "creating a new Middle East". It is not surprising that the United States has such a major strategy. However, after Israel and Lebanon ceased fire, another problem appeared: if the US can not continue "breaking into" the Middle East, the forefront of US global strategy, she will have to put an end to this new round of US military expansion that has been launched in the name of "anti-terrorism". The Americans need to stop and reflect.

Energy accumulated in Cold War exhausted
In the past, whenever national strength developed, the United States renewed her ability of waging war, thus opening up new colonies or enlarging her "sphere of influence" through launching wars and occupying trade channels, raw materials and markets to provide better support for further domestic development. This serves as both energy consumption accumulated in early wars and a start for collecting greater military capacity in the near future. Within the world political and military vision, the US has been exercising her war power by launching one round of military expansion, followed by another. The WWI, WWII, Korean War, Vietnam War, and Iraq War are all essentially the same.

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States took advantage of this golden world political situation and unfolded a new round of military expansion, aiming to build a US empire with a global presence that is similar to the Ancient Roman Empire. She started expansion in the early 1990s which has vigorously changed the world political environment. The successor of the Soviet Union has been degraded to a second class nation and is busily defending her homeland; the former Soviet Union influence has lessened. The US military has entered various important strategic places across the world and has obtained distinct geographical advantage against Russia and China. The US image of a preeminent empire has been initially established. However, there is evidence indicating that the United States has used up her capacity to fight accumulated during the cold war in achieving these results. She seems to have no more spare energy to continue launching war.

Six major factors leading up to US expansion
The first problem is "fourth generation warfare" (4GW). The war in Iraq three years ago made the US army very famous at the time. But only after less than a year, the United States has been caught in a new trap of "asymmetric war". American military circles are all talking about the "fourth generation warfare". They believe that "the states lost their monopoly on war in 4GWs. Throughout the world, national forces find out that they are actually fighting against non-state opponents such as Al-Qaeda group, Hamas, Hezbollah, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, etc. In almost every country, the state government presents as a failure." The once all-powerful modern US military was fooled by some non-state political organizations. From the 9/11 Incident to the Israel-Lebanon conflicts, then to the cracked London hijacking case, the facts are constantly proving that the "fourth generation warfare" is spreading to a wider scope. Evident from President Bush's furious expression when he attacked the "Islamic fascism", it seems that he has not found a better solution.

Secondly, the diplomatic "games" between Iran and the United States on the brink of the war. Iran has seen through the US strategic situation and her pragmatic nature of "bullying the weak" and "fearing the strong". Therefore she has sufficient patience to go through with the diplomatic "games" on the brink of the war. On the contrary, the United States does not have many trump cards in hand against Iran, therefore expecting more troubles.

The third problem is North Korea's continued attitude of determination. The North Korea issue has been a big concern of the United States. However, she is not directly related to this problem. The issue of North Korea is not only an issue concerning nuclear and missile, but also a major issue related to geopolitical relations. Having been overbearing in other places, the United States does not even dare apply any harsh military strategy such as "attacking first" in this old battlefield that they've were involved in 50 years ago.

The fourth issue concerns the Taiwan Strait. This is an even bigger geopolitical and military issue. Because the supporters of "Taiwan independence" are determined and adventurous, it is not easy to relax the current tension. The United States is annoyed about at their disturbance in such a busy season. She has repeated some "harsh words" to Chen Shui-bian. The powerful US military force in the Pacific has been firmly retrained by these two issues. As a result, the US military in the Pacific are not able to support her military operations in other areas.

The fifth issue concerns EU political constraints. From the Iraq war to the Iranian nuclear issue and then to the Israel-Lebanon conflicts, the EU has demonstrated her political independence in dealing with all these issues. Although in many fields the EU is still a partner of the United States, it is no longer a lackey or a follower. The EU will probably not have essential confronts with the United States, but as long as it does not fully cooperate with the United States, the latter will see her prestige falling down across the world. Since most NATO members are from the EU, if the Europe-US relation does not go smoothly, the United States will not be able to keep this powerful military force under control. In recent wars, the United States intended to rely on NATO military strength, but the achievement was poor. As a result, she has to lower her sail in political and military ambitions.

The sixth issue is Russia's "imperial impulse". US strategists clearly understand that the above five factors are only minor problems to deal with onher way to the top of the world. The revival of this superpower is the only real nightmare for the United States. The fundamental purpose of the US instigating NATO's eastward expansion, planning "color" revolution, and, engaging in the wars for more than 10 years is that she is determined to eradicate the influence of the Soviet Union and further dismember Russia. According to the statistics from some US scholars, Russia has resumed 70% of the economic strength and 80% of the military strength of the former Soviet Union. The US top officials have repeatedly hinted that Russia still has a strong "imperial impulse". The mantis stalks the cicada, unaware of the oriole behind. And a hunter is even targeting the oriole. A new "hunter" has shown up. This is the most important reason why the United States dares not walk too faraway in the Middle East, to withdraw from Iran.

New military build-up for the next phase?
The latest facts indicate that the six factors have joined their forces in pulling back US expansion. Venezuelan President Hugo Chavezo has been crying loudly for an anti-American course. Iran and North Korea have been in close interaction; Russian President Vladimir Putin has been vigorously proposing the establishment of a big energy triangular between Russia, China and India. According to reports, Iran has recently released Bin Laden's son. All these signals show that the United States is pushing all its enemies to the same trench by continuously putting her hands in many hornet's nests. As a result, the United States will have to deal with an anti-America array or a well organized network instead of some separated and dispersed attacking points.

However, in contrast to her strategic plight, the US major military moves this year were especially striking. An unprecedented scale of military maneuver, "Cyber Storm" exercise, global display of aircraft carriers, and proposing to equip her ICBMs with conventional warheads. The four branches of the United States military are vigorously promoting new military revolution or transitions. It is forecasted that by around 2025 the United States will complete its global instantaneous attack program. It appears that the American chariots are still "strongly powered". In fact, this is only a fanfare which reflects the helplessness and fear of the United States in her current strategic plight. Of course, it could also be an accumulation of military energy for the next phase. In the face of increasing and insolvable practical problems, far-off national strategic goal, and fundamental but insurmountable obstacles, the United States may be entering a new period of force adjustments. With the coming conclusion of the political life of current governmental administration, the 2008 US presidential election will bring an opportunity for international policy adjustments.

Source: Global Times, translated by People's Daily Online



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