Democrats have taken control of the House of Representatives and the Senate, according to the outcome of Nov. 7 American mid-term elections, which are compared to the "battle of Waterloo" for the Republicans.

On Wednesday's press briefing, President George W. Bush first of all admitted his disappointment and dismay at the elections outcome, which was attributable to implications from the Iraq war. "The American people grew sick and tired of the Iraqi effort (by their votes)," Bush said, acknowledging that he should take most of the responsibilities. Then he introduced former CIA director, Robert Gates, as his nominee to replace Donald H. Rumsfeld as secretary of defense.

Nevertheless, is it really true that the policy direction of the U.S. can change and the turmoil in Iraq can be put to an end, with Democrats, who have called for a change of the course, taking control of both the House and the Senate and the new defense secretary assuming his post? The answer is perhaps "easy to talk about but very difficult to act."

First, the above changes can take effect but cannot resolve the question of the fundamental polity direction. Rumsfeld is absolutely not a scapegoat but a pure and simple "authentic goat". Many high-ranking officers were in a firm opposition to launch the Iraq war. The outbreak of the war, nevertheless, was due to the spur and instigation of new conservative forces. With Vice-President Dick Cheney and Rumsfeld agitating for the war on downstage, Bush finally made the decision. Today, Vice-President Cheney, who advocated war then, is still on the stage and still refuses to admit his errors. As for Bush, he reminded people that the outcome of elections should notbe used to soften the US determination, though he could understand the hope of voters to get the American troops back home. Moreover, he added, as long as he remains the US president, he will not order a troop withdrawal if the mission in Iraq remains unfulfilled.

Secondly, the goal in Iraq can hardly be attained. Bush no longer mentions Iraq as "the beacon that radiates the whole Middle East" but has lowered the scaling pole. "As long as Iraq stands up, the American troops will pull out." By "standing up", it is meant that the Iraqi government can "take care of itself, stands on its own feet and defends itself", and even such a low-standard goal is also difficult of approach. At present, the principal issue in Iraq is not anti-American terrorism, but intensified sectarian murders among different religious sects, which have their own militia forces with their members having been infiltrated into governments and armed police. It is no easy job at all to sort out and clear up illegal armed personnel, as Iraqi government leaders have come from different religious sects and hinge on their backing. Therefore, what Iraq urgently needs are the national and religious reconciliation process, and political wisdom and political settlement, instead of merely military strategy and tactics.

Thirdly, despite their dissatisfaction with Bush's Iraq strategy, Democrats still do not have a better, effective alternate for the conclusion of the Iraq war. Opinions of Democratic congressmen differ widely on such issues as whether or when the American army will be withdrawn, and no conclusion could be drawn about these differing views. Senator Hillary R. Clinton, a prevailing popular candidate for the next presidency, has so far not made any proposal for troop withdrawal. To date, what consensus the Democrats can reach is merely to impose pressure onto the new Iraqi government, and prompt it to resume its responsibility for national security, so as to carry out "the recall of the US forces by stages".

With restraints by Democrats, Bush's Iraq policy, of course, has to make some noticeable adjustments, and the troop pullout will possibly be put on the agenda at an earlier date. But it is still hard to determine whether the troop withdrawal will be fulfilled during Bush's term of office, and a fundamental change is unlikely to occur in the policy direction during the remaining years of the Bush Administration.

By People's Daily Online