Change, shift and transition have gradually become key words used to describe the evolution of the Bush administration's foreign policy. It is showing obvious signs of fatigue in its foreign policy. The neoconservatives who created the Bush legend are now being forced to defend themselves. A new debate on US foreign policy is growing in Washington. What changes will be made to US foreign policy?

US President George W. Bush has witnessed a lot of changes in recent years. The US mid-term elections gave the Democratic Party control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives for the first time since 1994 and the winds of change are beginning to sweep over both Capitol Hill and the Pentagon. The Democrats' victory has been a great setback to the Bush Administration.

The voter-led changes to the country's political structure have driven Bush to do some internal restructuring of his own: Robert Gates has replaced Donald Rumsfeld as Secretary of Defense and John Bolton has resigned as the US Ambassador to the United Nations.

The Iraq Study Group Report published in early December recommends that the Bush Administration take immediate steps to resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict and suggests that Bush pursue dialogue to resolve differences with Iran and Syria as well as end the Iraq conflict to ensure peace in the Middle East.

The report would seem to suggest that Bush's Iraq policies have failed. The changes it recommends have stirred up further debate over the direction of US foreign policy.

In his book, "The Rise of the Vulcans", James Mann describes President Bush's key advisors as vulcans, an alliance in control of US foreign policy advocating military preemption. Today, these "vulcans" have fallen from grace, resigning their posts after the American people decided the war in Iraq had failed.

Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, engineer and champion of Bush's Iraq strategy, had already admitted the terrible situation in Iraq before he resigned and called for major changes to the Bush administration's strategy. This made the situation for Bush even harder as he was even more isolated.

After being re-elected in 2004, US President Bush stated that he had earned plenty of "political capital". Now it would seem that this "political capital" has been all used up in the Iraq War.

The smoke and gunpowder on the Iraqi streets seems to have derailed the Bush administration. Iraq has slid to the brink of civil war and something small could trigger even greater chaos in the Middle East. The US's influence in the Middle East is weakening and the Bush administration has to consider a withdrawal strategy.

The Democratic Party is unlikely to weigh into the Iraq crisis. With their eye on winning the 2008 presidential election, they will continue to take advantage of the Bush administration's difficult situation.

Though the US faces a major dilemma with the Iraq issue - with its failed anti-terror strategy and localized disputes escalating - the US will not necessarily suffer a recession, nor is it likely to be humble in international affairs. The US will continue its aggressive attitude.

What is noteworthy is that the US has figured out another super-strategy to try to remobilize the international community. It claims to be pursuing transformational diplomacy and its new slogan is "Alliance of Democracies".

The Princeton Project on National Security, a research report which has generated a lot of press, includes the draft of a long-term strategy for dealing with critical issues facing the United States following the Cold War and the 9/11 terrorist attacks. The Princeton Project advocates an "Alliance of Democracies" to act as a major force in world institutions such as the United Nations. The project comes after the US failed in its "democracy test" in the Middle East, which suggests the US is not yet ready to give cease its efforts to graft its own brand of democracy onto the world.

Will this "Alliance of Democracies" again stir up US ambition and greed? Will it increase or reduce the US's liability in foreign assets? What changes will the US make to its foreign policy? Perhaps the answer is, as the famous American singer Bob Dylan said, blowing in the wind.

By People's Daily Online; The author, Ruan Zongze, is vice president of China Institute of International Studies