Researchers call for better forecasting of global warming

A team of international scientists has called for better forecasting methods in predicting how climate change will have an impact on the earth's plant and animal species.

In an article entitled "Forecasting the Effects of Global Warming on Biodiversity," published in the latest BioScience journal, the scientists proposed eight ways to better forecast the effects on biodiversity:

-- Select one of the many meanings associated with the complex concept of biodiversity and target that meaning as the parameter in a specific forecast;

-- Evaluate and validate forecasting methods before applying them to general forecasts;

-- Consider the various factors that might impact biodiversity from climate change to pressures from humans on the native habitat of species;

-- Obtain adequate information before making predictions about future outcomes;

-- Examine fossil records to aid in understanding how some plant and animal species have adapted to changes in their environments;

-- Improve four widely-used techniques in forecasting that focus on individuals, groups, the integration of species, environmental factors and groups or species based on theories;

-- Embed ecological principles in forecasts based on air, water and animal and plant life; and

-- Develop better models to improve upon modeling forecasts, called species-area curves, based on a specific number of species in relation to their habitat and how climate changes can modify the environment.

In addition to predictions about global changes, the researchers also want better forecasting to unravel "the Quaternary conundrum," which is evidence suggesting that many of the estimated 1.5 million species on earth are in danger of extinction from global warming, yet over the past 2.5 million years little extinction is documented in fossil records.

"The simultaneous widespread and justified alarm over global warming and changes in biodiversity has induced both outstanding scientific research and deplorable pseudoscientific work," said U.S. researcher Matthew Sobel of Case Western Reserve University.

Sobel raised concerns about the "blurring" of scientific fact with public advocacy and hoped for public discussions to center around sound environmental facts.

"Where science has limitations should be noted too," added Sobel.

His concern is that misinformation or poorly constructed forecasts may divert and reduce resources that could be better spent in other areas.

Limits to scientific knowledge exist with current forecasting models, according to Sobel, and these need to be acknowledged when reporting global warming.

His concern for accurate information and reporting was echoed at a recent meeting of researchers from the United States, Denmark, Spain, Britain and Australia.

Instead of engaging in "a war of words" to set the record straight where misconceptions exist in the global warming discussion, Sobel said the group reached a consensus to come up with prediction tools that "do the job right."

Source: Xinhua