China's high-speed urbanization to end in 2013

China's high-speed urbanization will start to end in or around 2013 (between 2011 and 2016), according to predictions from the first "Blue Book on Micro Economy" released by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) on April 15.

The blue book says that China's urbanization rate was nearly 46 percent and still accelerating in 2008. However, the speed of urbanization will begin to slow around 2013.

The book, published by the Social Sciences Academic Press (SSAP), also predicts that China's urbanization rate will reach over 52.3 percent in 2015, nearly 57.7 percent in 2020 and nearly 67.8 percent in 2030. The urbanization rate of around 68 percent is most likely the upper limit for the next 20 years, and after 2030, China's urbanization rate will stay around this level for some time.

Liu Xiahui, the main author of the book and a researcher from the Institute of Economics under the CASS, said an urbanization rate of around 67.8 percent in 2030 means that the rate will increase by 1 percentage point every year. In other words, 14 million people will enter China's cities from China's suburban areas every year.

Liu also reminded people of the "real challenges" brought about by urbanization. He said the cost of China's current urbanization process is very high, and it will damage the competitive industrial power of China's cities, lead to pauses in the urbanization process and cause unsustainable economic development.

The blue book suggests that in order to control the cost of China's urbanization, the government should adopt three measures. First, they should reduce their administrative costs. Second, they should firmly proceed with the construction of a nationwide social security system initiated by China's central government. Third, they should step up the development of affordable housing.

By Pepple's Daily Online