During the third conference of Nobel Prize winners in Economics, which was opened in Lindau, Germany on August 20th, many economists said that they are quite optimistic about the long-term development of the Chinese economy.
Nobel Laureate in Economics in 2001, former World Bank chief economist Joseph Stiglitz, told Xinhua News Agency, "I am very optimistic about China's future economic growth. Although it might not necessarily maintain the current double-digit growth, sustained growth is still foreseeable."
He said that China has "established a very good foundation in manufacturing, infrastructure, services, science and technology, and other fields;" and he has the "reason to believe" that China will maintain "sustainable and stable" economic growth in the future. He added that given the current economic slowdown in the United States, Europe and Japan, China's rapid economic growth has become a major force stimulating the economic growth of the world.
Nobel Laureate in Economics in 1993, 82-year-old Robert Fogel is also an "optimist" about China's economy. In an interview with reporters, he said: "In the next a few decades, the Chinese economy will continue to maintain an 8-10% growth rate."
He further explained that if calculated on the basis of 8%, 5% is likely to come from the improvement of existing industrial labor productivity, while the other 3% will come from labor mobilization from rural to urban areas. "The productivity of every industrial worker is five times that of one agricultural population, which means for every labor force that shifts from rural to urban areas, there will be five times more productivity."
Nobel Laureate in Economics in 1999 and "the Father of Euro" Mondale gave an even more aggressive forecast on China's long-term development in his report delivered during the conference. He forecasted that China will go further to develop its economy and pointed out that "it is the country's economic strength that determines the status of the national currency." In the next a few decades, the status of the RMB in international financial activities will improve subsequently.
Of course, economists pointed out the various challenges that China will face. Stiglitz cited issues such as the innovative economic system, export competitiveness, market-oriented reform, and rural development. Fogel pointed out that the gap in income between China's western provinces and coastal provinces is the most important issue to resolve.
By People's Daily Online
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