The upcoming Serbia's presidential elections will face an uncertain outcome, depending on the voter turnout and the stand of Serbian Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica and his party, according to a poll released by a leading pollster on Tuesday.
"Kostunica's support is vital," said Srecko Mihajlovic, head of the polling team of the Center for Free Elections and Democracy (CeSID), referring to the conservative leader of Democratic Party of Serbia.
Presenting CeSID's findings, Mihajlovic said the incumbent President and Democratic Party leader Boris Tadic would be reelected only if all the parties in the ruling coalition as well as the staunchly pro-Western opposition Liberal Democratic Party supported him in the decisive second round on Feb. 3.
The ruling coalition comprises the Democratic Party of Serbia led by Kostunica, Tadic's pragmatic Democratic Party and the strongly pro-market G17 Plus party.
In the first round of voting due on Jan. 20, Kostunica and his party will back Velimir Ilic, leader of its strongest coalition ally, the New Serbia party.
Mihajlovic said party supporters were influenced by a direct invitation of the party leader and nobody could predict Kostunica's decision for the run-off at this point.
None of the nine presidential candidates can expect to receive more than the required 50 percent of the vote to qualify for outright victory in the first round, but only pro-Western Tadic and hardline nationalist Tomislav Nikolic appear set to make it into the run-off, according to CeSID's poll, carried out between Dec. 25 and Dec. 31 last year.
Mihajlovic said a low turnout among some 6.7 million voters in the second round would favor Nikolic of the Serbian Radical Party as it indicated large-scale abstentions by the less disciplined supporters of the mainstream democratic parties.
"Low turnout of between 3.2 and 3.5 million will likely secure Nikolic's victory," Mihajlovic said.
According to CeSID, at this point Nikolic would have the support of 21 percent of voters, Tadic 19 percent, Ilic and Milutin Mrkonjic of the Socialist Party 4 percent each and Liberal Democratic Party leader Cedomir Jovanovic 3 percent of voters.
Pollsters interviewed 1,520 respondents from across Serbia, except for the breakaway Kosovo province, with a margin of error of 2 percent.
Source:Xinhua
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