The battle for the next U.S. presidency started probably by the end of November 2006, but the first real test will come on the night of Jan. 3 in the midwestern state of Iowa.
Pre-election polls can reflect strength of a candidate, but some results are conflicting and polls are not real elections anyway. With all the major candidates making final pushes in Iowa Wednesday, three latest polls showed no clear leader in the state in the run-up to Thursday's caucuses.
The final Des Moines register poll before caucuses showed among Democrats, Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) is leading with 32 percent, followed by Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) with 25 percent and former Sen. John Edwards (D-NC) with 24 percent.
On the GOP side, former governor of Arkansas Mike Huckabee is leading former governor of Massachusetts Mitt Romney with 32 percent-26 percent in Iowa, followed by Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) with 13 percent.
However, a CNN poll shows Clinton at 33 percent; Obama at 31 percent and Edwards at 22 percent. On the GOP side, the poll has Romney at 31 percent and Huckabee at 28 percent, former Sen. Fred Thompson (R-Tenn.) at 13 percent, McCain at 10 percent and former mayor of New YOrk Rudy Giuliani, 8 percent.
A GAME TOO CLOSE TO CALL
With the competitions in both parties still too close to call, the leading candidates raced between colleges and small towns to make their last pitches. On the Republican side, Romney flew two dozen reporters across Iowa for a series of events, ending a hyper-organized Hawkeye State effort that is now threatened by Huckabee's unconventional campaign.
Democratic front-runners Clinton, Obama and Edwards closed out their year-long debate on experience vs change. All of the candidates exhibited exhaustion and a bit of desperation -- the natural outcomes of a presidential campaign that began earlier and with more intensity than ever before but one that has not produced an obvious front-runner on either side.
As the candidates sprinted for the finish line, there was an unmistakable intensity gap between the parties.
In Coralville, near the University of Iowa, about 1,500 Iowans packed into a hotel ballroom on Wednesday afternoon for Obama. Meanwhile, Clinton wooed 1,000 in nearby Cedar Rapids. The Republican candidates had far smaller crowds. Romney, for example, spoke to about 75 people at an elementary school and then held a rally in a Cedar Rapids airport with about 50 supporters.
SMALL TURNOUTS AND UNDECIDED VOTERS
For candidates, they are faced with two urgent tasks before the first-in-the-nation Iowa Caucus.
First, they need to rally loyal supporters to ensure they show up to vote. Candidates in both parties are fighting over a small pool of voters in Iowa; about 120,000 to 150,000 people are expected to vote in the Democratic caucuses, while 80,000 to 90,000 are likely to participate in the GOP contest.
That is a small chunk out of the nearly 3 million Iowans. So it could take relatively few people to give a candidate an edge -- and that's where the final push for votes comes into play.
For example, Clinton is banking on more women of senior age -- her traditional supporters -- to show up while Obama hope more young people who generally favor him to cast their ballots.
The second task is to push undecided voters into a decision. Polls point to an unusually large number of undecided voters in Iowa. In a CNN poll of mid-December, just 38 percent of Iowa's likely voters had definitely decided on a candidate.
Some 40 percent of respondents said they were still trying to decide. Deb Bailey, a native of Cedar Rapids, Iowa, told Xinhua in an Obama event that she can't choose between Hillary and Obama.
"Hillary has experience and Obama has vision to change. They are both great persons," she said. The art director said she will support a Democrat anyway.
Dee Krantz, a farmer in Iowa, has the similar problem. "I don't know which one I should vote for," He told Xinhua in a rally for Romney.
Krantz generally favors Giuliani, but the former New York mayor seems to skip Iowa and focus on bigger states.
IOWA IMPACT
The Iowa Caucus is the first step in selecting party candidates for the U.S. presidential election.
The contests in the small midwestern state have a big impact because their results attract intense media attention. For example, whoever comes in third in the three-horse race among the Democrats seems to have a slim chance of winning the nomination, if history is any guide.
That is why all eyes will be on the intense race between Clinton and Obama in Iowa, perhaps the only state where Edwards is favored to win.
On the Republican side, if current favorite Huckabee doesn't secure a first-place win, it could be a fatal blow for him as well.
About 40 million U.S. dollars has been spent on campaigning in Iowa, which averages out to be more than 400 dollars for each voter expected to attend the caucuses.
The figures could make this year's race the first-ever billion-dollar presidential election.
Source:Xinhua
|
Comment
Tell A Friend
Print Format
Save Article