In a dramatic way, two leading candidates posing as "Washington outsiders" are declared winners of the Iowa caucuses for both major political parties, according to preliminary results of the first battle of the 2008 presidential race held here Thursday night.
Senator Barack Obama and former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee have emerged as the victors in Iowa Thursday, winning the heavily contested presidential caucuses. The results show that the strategy of Obama and Huckabee in Iowa worked very well.
In a too-close-to-call contest like the Iowa caucues, voter turnout is the key.
Candidates from both parties were fighting over a small pool of voters in Iowa -- about 120,000 to 150,000 people are expected to vote in the Democratic caucuses, while 80,000 to 90,000 are likely to participate in the GOP contest.
That is a small chunk out of the nearly 3 million Iowans. So it could take relatively few people to give a candidate an edge -- and that's where the final push for votes comes into play.
Many of Obama's supporters are young students who have never gone to a caucus before and he has spent many times in trying to persuade them to come out to vote for him.
And it works. On the Democratic side, the voter turnout has nearly doubled this time, with an increasing number of voters supporting Obama.
For Huckabee, a former Baptist minister, he was focusing on the Evangelicals who compose 60 percent of the Republican voters in Iowa. As a result, although he did not have many funds in his war chest, he still got a lot of support.
The victory of Obama and Huckabee also reflects popular sentiment for change among Americans, most of them think the country is going on a wrong track.
"Change" is Obama's trademark while Huckabee shows a lot of difference with the Republican administration on a series of issues.
A survey found more than half of Democratic voters in Iowa said they were voting for the candidate who could bring about "change."
The Iowa caucus is the first step in selecting party candidates for the U.S. presidential election.
While the state is tiny and the voter numbers are low, political analysts say Iowa matters because it can make or break a candidate's chances in the other 49 states.
"If you can't make the top three on either side in Iowa, you can't get the party nomination," Terry Branstas, a former Republican governor of Iowa told Xinhua.
In fact, since 1976, nearly every serious presidential candidate has come to Iowa and tried to win in the state.
In total, Iowa has picked the eventual Democratic presidential nominee in five of the past seven competitive caucuses and the eventual Republican nominee in three of the past five competitive caucuses.
Media and money played a big role in this, according to Scott Brennan, who chairs the Democrat Party In Iowa.
If a candidate lags behind in the Iowa race, his or her money will dry out and media will pay little attention to him or her, he told Xinhua.
For example, the presidential debate scheduled after the Iowa caucus will only invite the top four candidates from both parties who emerge from the Iowa race.
Lower-tier candidates may try to hang on through the New Hampshire primary of Jan. 8, but single-digit finishes in Iowa will spell the end for a number of candidates.
As a Republican strategist has observed: "Iowa will mark the beginning of the end for other major contenders in the field, but we just aren't smart enough to figure out which ones."
"In other words, Iowa starts winnowing out people as opposed to crowning people. That happens later in New Hampshire and obviously on 'super Tuesday' on February 5," said Tom Clark, a senior political reporter in Washington.
For example, two Democratic candidates Joe Biden and Chris Doddwere quitting the race after doing badly in the caucuses.
The results of the Iowa caucuses show the presidential nomination race will not be over here in Iowa for either party.
As Obama wins, there is any kind of a muddled finish on the Democratic side, and the battle goes to New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. A second place for former Senator John Edwards from North Carolina guarantees the race continues.
For Republicans, there is no way the Republican race ends in Iowa. Huckabee has a difficult path ahead, even if he wins here, because he has been lagging in New Hampshire.
"As Huckabee wins, the results will confuse the Republican nomination, rather than clarify it," said GOP strategist Terry Nelson.
Both the Democratic and Republican races could go to Feb. 5, when nearly two dozen states will hold contests. Some strategists believe the races could go beyond that, particularly the Republican campaign.
Source:Xinhua
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