Terror in U.S.: How dangerous are home grown jihadists?

by Matthew Rusling

Tarek Mehanna seemed to be living the life of an ordinary American suburbanite. A U.S.-born pharmacist and graduate from the Massachusetts College of Pharmacy, he was soft spoken and did not fit the profile of a violent Islamic extremist, neighbors said.

Yet on Wednesday he was arrested outside Boston for allegedly plotting to launch attacks in the United States, which he did in the name of Islam, according to authorities. He has been charged with conspiring with others to carry out attacks on shopping malls, assassinate U.S. political leaders and help insurgents kill U.S. troops in Iraq.

Mehanna's case is the latest in a spate of recent arrests in which home grown jihadists -- U.S. citizens and legal residents --have plotted attacks on U.S. civilians. The cases mirror what authorities have recognized for a few years now: while most American Muslims abhor terrorism, a small element are susceptible to radicalization.

But how dangerous are radicals such as Mehanna?

"These guys are wannabes," said Scott Stewart, vice president of tactical intelligence at Stratfor, a global intelligence company. "The grass routes guys are amateurish and don't have the ability to do (large scale) damage."

Such individuals have few skills in surveillance of large targets and little knowledge of heavy explosives that would enable them to hit high profile targets, he said.

Although Mehanna is the fifth U.S.-based terror suspect to be arrested during the last five months, experts said his arrest reflects law enforcement's improved capabilities, rather than an uptick of radicalized U.S. Muslims. They noted that Mehanna has allegedly been plotting jihad for nearly a decade and had yet to pull off a single operation.

Last month, Najibullah Zazi, a legal immigrant from Afghanistan, was taken into custody in Colorado and charged with conspiracy. The 24-year-old was accused of attempting to carry out a terror plot in New York.

Also arrested last month was New York-born Betim Kaziu, who was charged in a conspiracy to kill U.S. troops in Afghanistan. Hosam Maher Husein Smadi, who lived in Dallas, Texas, was arrested last month after allegedly attempting to bomb an office building in the name of Islam.

And in July, 39-year-old Daniel P. Boyd and six others were charged in North Carolina with stockpiling weapons and traveling overseas on a number of occasions to partake in jihadist activities.

Such efforts to wage jihad vary in their level of sophistication. Zazi attended terror training camps in Pakistan and authorities called the case one of the most serious in years. Others, however, smacked of amateurism, experts said.

But while many domestic extremists can appear to be "incompetent bozos" -- Mehanna was unable to acquire automatic weapons and trekked across the world seeking terror contacts who rejected him -- they can become deadly when linked with an experienced cell leader who provides training for large scale operations, Stewart said.

"For the most part, these guys are not totally dangerous on their own," he said. "When they get dangerous is when they get a trained operational commander who has skills to plan and do surveillance."

Unlike the way terrorists are portrayed in Hollywood, many are novices, not sophisticated international jet setters, experts said. The 9/11 attacks, said Stewart, were an anomaly and conducted by an elite team of "al-Qaida all stars" trained and groomed to be masters of their deadly trade, Stewart said.

But since those attacks, groups such as al-Qaida have come under intense scrutiny from the United States and its allies, and that has hit their finances and leadership hard, making it difficult to link willing amateurs with experienced cell leaders, he said. Still, even without direction, a willing jihadist is capable of taking lives in smaller scale operations, such as bringing a handgun to a local shopping mall and killing civilians, experts said.

Paul Pillar, director of the security studies program at Georgetown University and former CIA analyst, said the terrorist threat in Western nations stems from small groups acting largely on their own initiative, although many may be inspired -- but not necessarily directed -- by al-Qaida or other terror groups.

In the case of Najibullah Zazi, for example, reports said he was in touch with a senior al-Qaida operative, but "that doesn't tell us where the initiative came from," Pillar said.

Jena McNeill, policy analyst for homeland security at the Washington, D.C.-based Heritage Foundation, said that while the United States always faces some type of terror threat, the danger of home grown terrorism has not increased.

"I don't want to downplay the possibility that it could increase, but it is not as bad as Europe," she said, adding that radical Islam poses a greater danger across the Atlantic than it does in the United States. Indeed, studies have shown U.S.-based Muslims to be better integrated than their European-based counterparts.

Stewart said there has been a shift in the way U.S. authorities approach terrorism since the first World Trade Center bombings in 1993.

"There's a new slew of charges now that didn't exist in 1993," he said. "There's new laws that enable authorities to scoop these guys up before they (harm anyone)."

Other analysts note that while many attempts at jihad have been amateurish, other, more adept operatives may be lurking in the shadows.

"There may be other plots that are less bumbling but we don't know about them," Pillar said. "It's hard to draw a firm conclusion about al-Qaida's capabilities right now."

Source: Xinhua