Czech Social Democrats face challenges both from inside and outside

With ten weeks remaining to parliamentary elections, it seems quite sure that the Czech Republic would be ruled by Social Democrats for the next four years.

Pollsters consider them clear favorites. For example, the last results by Median agency have shown that Social democrats (CSSD) were supported by 34.5 percent of voters, while their prime rivals, Civic Democratic Party (ODS) could count on 20.7 percent.

Two other parties seem to be sure to qualify for lower house: Communists (13.9 percent) and new center right party TOP 09. Three other smaller parties may, but by no means are sure to step over five percent threshold to get seats for their deputies.

Another sociological institution, CVVM, brought similar results (33 percent for CSSD, 20.5 percent for ODS, 14.5 for Communists)

More hope for the parties on the right was promised by STEM ( CSSD 28.6 percent, ODS 23.2 percent, Communists 11.7 percent).

As the present system of awarding Parliament seats favors the bigger parties, CSSD may win even more than 90 seats of 200 in the new lower house, i.e. to be able to form a government with any of the smaller parties or just with a tacit support of Communists.

Crisis Factor

Even more important than the polls, is current state of Czech economy. Though it may have been growing in last few months, the results if any are invisible. In countryside and in smaller towns, it has been increasingly difficult to earn enough to keep the usual living standard, as unemployment has been growing steadily and almost no new work places appear.

Indebtedness of population has increased ten times in last eight years and people have learned what is it to have their property taken by the creditor. CSSD seems to care for such problems much more than the ODS, at least their program of actions was constructed to accommodate the poorer part of population. Moreover, it was ODS at the helm, when crisis started.

ODS Internal Strife,

A year ago, internal problems in ODS-led ruling coalition caused the fall of government of Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek.

An interim cabinet was formed, but instead of cementing their positions, ODS started a mudthrowing campaign within their own party. A strong rival seemed to threaten Topolanek mayor of Prague Pavel Bem.

Czech capital has been a stronghold of ODS since its founding, but there were too many corruption scandals involving the city hall uncovered lately. It seems, at least some of them may be fed by opponents inside the ODS.

It seems sure than many voters of ODS would either vote one of the smaller center right parties, or even boycott the vote. In the last 2006 elections, ODS candidates from Prague won 14 of the party's total 81 seats in lower house. To lose Prague would be mean disaster for the future of ODS.

There is another threat for ODS called TOP 09. It is a new party founded by a Miroslav Kalousek, former Finance Minister in the Topolanek government who defected from Christian Democratic Party (KDU-CSL) and enrolled former Foreign Minister Karel Schwarzenberg, aristocrat with strong links to Germany and Austria, to chair it. TOP 09 seems to be stealing the votes from ODS. And what is important, Kalousek declared openly he is not opposed to forming a coalition with Social Democrats.

Media as an Enemy

Social Democrats have just one frontman their chairman Jiri Paroubek, a very diligent and clever man without much personal appeal. Quite many people willingly admit they dislike him just because of his looks and his style of speech. Especially when addressing a young urban generation, he seems to call down curses on himself.

But this may be a minor problem, as CSSD have their voters in countryside. And in Moravia, the eastern part of the country, where the Prague wiseguys are not in favor.

Experience show Paroubek can expect a bad blow from the press. Even last weekend, when CSSD published their plan of actions, majority of press coverage centered itself more on finding its faults than on real reporting what was it about.

Before 2006 elections, Paroubek was accused by a phony report prepared by a top policeman of many wrongdoings, including pedophilia. There has been quite a lot of mudthrowing in Czech media, and if somebody can expect an attack from the back, it is Paroubek, simply because press and TV are produced by Prague's smarties.

Enemy from History

As the Top 09 is siphoning away the votes of ODS, Social Democrats have a new enemy from within, their own former party leader Milos Zeman. He left CSSD angrily, after it failed to support him with sufficient vigor in his quest for the seat of president of republic, as some of the party members supported Vaclav Klaus instead.

Zeman is a very clever man with a tarnished image of a drunkard. But his wisecracks have been always well pointed and he can do CSSD perhaps more harm than the ODS. Particularly, as the Prague media like him and may give him quite a good coverage.

Grand Coalition May Change Everything

Milos Zeman and president Klaus had an idea, which was not very popular. To form a grand coalition of CSSD and ODS and change the election laws from proportional representation of all bigger parties (like in Italy) to majority voting in English way meaning that smaller parties would be all but disqualified from the main political arena.

For both parties it would mean getting the rid of Communists ( ODS was always strongly anti-communist and for CSSD they are rivals in their drive to attract leftists votes) and small dissident parties, as TOP 09.

In a way, a kind of grand coalition, interim government with the ministers named by both ODS and CSSD and led by Prime Minister Jan Fischer has been working quite well in last months.

Paroubek indicated he would not be totally opposed to it. ODS leader Topolanek has been silent about it recently and his rival Bem would not probably mind too much. So whoever wins the election may not be so important, after all.

Source: Xinhua