A US intelligence report that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003 could be seen as either as a sign of collusion or a conflict between the George W. Bush administration and intelligence agencies, Chinese experts said yesterday.
If the former were the case, it could provide a pretext for the administration to de-escalate tension and avoid a military conflict with Teheran, said Yuan Peng, a senior scholar on US studies with the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations.
The report may allow the Bush administration to retreat from the current deadlock, which could have led to warfare, he said.
"Currently, the Bush administration has neither enough troops nor adequate international support to launch such a war," Yuan said.
On the other hand, "it is not the first time the US intelligence agencies have contradicted the administration's stand", he said, pointing to a report which said Iraq had no weapons of mass destruction "which led to electoral losses for Republicans last year".
While the report is another blow to the credibility of Republicans, it will not have much influence on next year's presidential election, he added, pointing out that the issue might blow away by the time party nominees are chosen.
Gong Shaopeng, an expert on Middle East studies with China Foreign Affairs University, said the intelligence report backs his view published earlier in China Daily: "US strategy toward Iran has always been changing dramatically".
With advanced satellites, it is impossible that the White House did not know that Teheran had halted its nuclear program, said Gong, saying the report could lead to another policy shift.
The report reminds countries of the possible political costs of following US foreign policies, Gong said.
"I've repeatedly warned that countries should think twice about negative consequences before deciding to follow US dealings with Iran. I believe people will take my advice this time," he said.
Source: China Daily/Agencies
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