Israel Wednesday agreed to release a number of Palestinian prisoners by the end of August, leaving many wondering about the motives of outgoing Prime Minister Ehud Olmert grilled over corruption scandals.
OLMERT'S INTENTION UNCLEAR
Olmert's spokesman Mark Regev told Israeli media on Wednesday that Olmert made the decision as a goodwill gesture towards Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and a confidence-building measure towards the Palestinians.
However, no conclusive agreement has been revealed to the public on the exact number and the identities of those to be released.
Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat said Israel agreed to release a total of 150 prisoners, out of some 11,000 in Israeli custody, but Israeli officials declined to provide the number and the names.
Given the lack of clarity of the actual agreement, many analysts see Olmert's motives are elusive.
Considering that Olmert has announced the decision not to run in the Kadima primary in September and to resign as soon as a new leader is elected, many analysts put more question marks around the prisoners release.
"It is not clear why Olmert is making this gesture. These kinds of steps should be taken with careful consideration. And it is questionable how careful a premier who has decided to leave is likely to be," said Yishai Hollender, spokesman for the Council of Jewish Communities of Judea, Samaria and the Gaza Strip (YESHA).
Professor Gerald Steinberg, chairman of the political studies department at Bar Ilan University, told Xinhua that he could not provide a clear explanation.
Yet he speculated that "releasing prisoners satisfies American pressures to make Abbas look good," underlining the daunting unpopularity facing both Olmert and Abbas.
EFFECT ON ABBAS' REPUTATION DOUBTFUL
However, some analysts doubted whether the prisoners release would do good to Abbas' reputation.
"The objective, according to the Israeli news, is a gesture to Abbas. However, this gesture could actually harm Abbas if it is a token gesture," Ghassan Khatib, Vice President of Birzeit University based near Ramallah told Xinhua in a phone interview.
If the people to be released are those "who are anyway about to be released," and if only 150 prisoners are released, then it will be shown that Abbas "is not being taken seriously by his counterpart," Khatib said.
He warning that such a humiliating scenario might have an adverse effect and foster support for more violent measures.
Yariv Oppenheimer, Director of Peace Now, agreed that the effectiveness of the gesture depends on the number of prisoners released and their identities.
"If it is only three or four criminal prisoners, then maybe it is not worth it. But if it concerns political prisoners that are important to Fatah, then it might be meaningful," Oppenheimer told Xinhua.
Moreover, it is still unknown if the Palestinians would offer something in return. Steinberg believed that "there may be some Palestinian quid pro quo, but it is very hard to imagine what that might be."
He also speculated that a combination of Fatah and Hamas prisoners would be unlikely as it would not really serve either group's interests.
"If the group to be released includes some Hamas members, why would Abbas want that?" Steinberg said.
The prisoners release came as Israel is trying to secure the return of its soldier Gilad Shalit, who was captured two years ago by three Palestinian militant groups led by Hamas.
Khatib said he did not think the latest prisoners release is related to the Shalit case, as "the Palestinians who captured Shalit are different from the group who submitted these names to Olmert."
Source: Xinhua
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