Israel bides time after making Hamas rocket claim

Israel now believes the militant Palestinian organization Hamas has taken possession of a rocket capable of reaching Tel Aviv, the country's main conurbation.

The claim was made by Israel's head of military intelligence Amos Yadlin during a meeting of the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee of Israel's parliament, the Knesset, on Tuesday.

Pondering reactions followed Israeli claim, analysts believe that at the present it is not in the interests of both sides to see military confrontation breaking out anytime soon.

HAMAS DENIES ROCKET CLAIM

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) believes Hamas now has a foreign-made missile with a range of 60 km. That brings into range Tel Aviv and large towns in the Jerusalem foothills.

Israel maintains that Hamas tested the rocket over the Mediterranean Sea last Thursday, on a stormy day, perhaps in a bid to hide the trial from the eyes of Israel's radars and unmanned aircraft.

A senior Hamas official told Xinhua on Wednesday that as far as he is aware his organization did not carry out a rocket test.

"I believe this is just an Israeli allegation because they are trying to justify their aggression and give the world community the impression that Hamas is developing long-range missiles," said Ahmed Yousuf, Hamas' deputy foreign minister and a senior adviser to Hamas' Prime Minister Ismail Haniya.

Hamas' military wing, meanwhile, refused to comment.

Despite the denials, Israel is convinced that Hamas has used the current period of calm to rebuild its arms cache in the wake of last winter's fighting against Israel. Israeli intelligence suggests Hamas now has more weaponry and missiles than it did on the eve of the outbreak of hostilities in last December.

ISRAELI RESPONSE IN FOCUS

Analysts deem that the chance of an immediate response by Israel to the supposed rocket trial is unlikely.

"I think one needs to react to Hamas all the time rather than each time there's a development there, and then there's the question of the significance of an immediate response," former IDF chief of staff Amnon Lipkin-Shahak told Xinhua on Wednesday.

If Israel knew there was a single storage facility for such missiles, then maybe logic would dictate a pinpoint attack. However, one can assume the IDF does not know the whereabouts of any additional rockets if there is any in Gaza, said Lipkin-Shahak, who was also ever a head of Israel's military intelligence.

It is a view shared by Guy Bechor, who directs the Middle East program at the Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy and Strategy in Israel's Interdisciplinary Center.

The best-case scenario would have been for Israel to destroy the missile mid-test, he said. Given that did not happen, now is not the time for Israel to launch a strike against Hamas' infrastructure, he argues.

Indeed, as far as both parties are concerned, a confrontation would not be beneficial at this time, Bechor suggests.

"Hamas isn't interested in any altercation with Israel right now. It suffered such a major blow in (last winter's military) Operation Cast Lead that it has no appetite whatsoever for another confrontation with Israel," said Bechor.

Additionally, he added, Israel too has nothing to gain by a military strike at this time, but should rather watch what is going on and make the world aware of the threats that it faces from Gaza.

Hamas is also of the opinion that Israel will not launch a strike on Gaza any time soon. With the international community still analyzing Israeli military actions last winter in and around the small Palestinian coastal enclave, Hamas maintains Israel would not risk an operation at this stage.

"Israel wouldn't dare wage another war in Gaza (right now)," said Yousuf.

The UN General Assembly is discussing the issue this week, in the wake of the publication of the Goldstone report, which suggested both Israel and Hamas were guilty of war crimes.

As far as Yousuf is concerned, the fact that Israel has no room to launch an attack is good news. However, he issues a stark warning.

"The situation is calm and I hope that will continue, but if the Israelis start targeting people or staging incursions, of course the people will respond," he said.

Yousuf does have a positive message for Israelis. As long as Israel does not commence "lobbing bombs" then no one in Hamas "is in a mood for firing rockets."

ISRAELI INTELLIGENCE WORK IN DISCUSSION

If the 60-kilometer-range rocket exists, as Israel claims, the defense establishment will have to discuss how the Palestinians were able to smuggle it into Gaza.

That discussion will have added meaning after it was revealed on Wednesday that Israel captured a civilian boat in the Mediterranean on Tuesday that was carrying a cargo of weapons.

While initial reports suggest Israel thinks the vessel was bound for Syria, the fact that it was captured at sea shows Israeli intelligence work often pays off.

Former IDF chief of state Lipkin-Shahak wonders whether the Hamas rocket reached Gaza via smuggling tunnels from Egypt or by sea.

If the former was the case then questions must be asked of the Egyptians although they have been working closely with the Israelis on this issue of late, he said.

However, if the missile was slipped in by a boat, that is clearly an area that should be covered by the Israeli Navy.

Asked if the fact that Israel knows so little about the rocket and how it may have reached Gaza shows a failing on the part of its highly-praised military intelligence, Lipkin-Shahak chose to defend the organization he once headed.

"It's impossible to know everything about everything. Over all I think there's plenty of information, which isn't at all bad," he said.

Source: Xinhua