A modest recovery for existing-home sales is expected in 2008 as the impact of the credit crunch subsides, while pending home sales indicate near-term stability, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) said Tuesday in its latest forecast.
The NAR expects existing-home sales to total 5.67 million units this year and to edge up to 5.69 million in 2008, in comparison with 6.48 million in 2006.
New-home sales are projected at 796,000 units in 2007 and 693,000 next year, below the 1.05 million last year. No real improvement is seen for new homes until 2009, the trade group said.
Because builders have rightly made drastic cuts in production, housing starts, including multifamily units, are forecast at 1.35 million units this year and 1.14 million in 2008, down from 1.80 million last year.
Existing-home prices are expected to decline 1.7 percent to a median of 218,200 dollars for all of this year and hold essentially even in 2008 at 218,300 dollars, the NAR said.
And the median new-home price is estimated to drop 1.6 percent to 242,500 dollars this year before rising 0.4 percent to 243,600 dollars in 2008.
The median price is a typical market price where half of homes are sold for more and half sold for less.
"The level of pent-up demand reaching the market next year is a bit uncertain, and it is possible for even higher home sales activity than we're forecasting if buyers regain their confidence about the long-term benefits of homeownership," said Lawrence Yun, NAR senior economist, in a press release.
Over the near term, home sales are likely to be fairly flat as the lingering impact of the credit crunch filters through the system through the end of the year, Yun said.
The real estate trade group also expects the U.S. economy to grow 2.1 percent in 2007 and 2.8 percent in 2008, compared with a 2.9 percent rate last year.
The unemployment rate is likely to average 4.6 percent in 2007,unchanged from last year, but edge up to 4.9 percent in 2008, the NAR said.
The NAR, "The Voice for Real Estate," says it is America's largest trade association, representing more than 1.3 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
Source:Xinhua
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