The global economic crisis has already spread to "the real economy" of retail sales and the whole North America will inevitably head into a recession, prominent U.S. economist and trader Dennis Gartman predicted Sunday.
Unemployment in the United States has risen to 6 percent and is likely to hit 8 percent or 9 percent, indicating the coming of a recession, said Gartman, author of "The Gartman Letter," during an interview with Canadian Television.
With the interlocking economies of Canada and the United States, one can conclude that as the United States goes into recession, so goes Canada, he said.
"Canada can't avoid recession. We are your biggest client, you are our biggest client and for the next six months or so we are going to drag Canada down with us. That's just a very normal circumstance."
Gartman said he has been traveling to across North America in recent weeks, and everywhere he goes, retail sales look very weak, as though they have "fallen of the edge of the cliff."
"Wherever you go, whether it's in New York, whether it's in Cleveland, whether it's in Virginia; even last week when I was in Toronto, you talk to people and retail sales are very weak," he said.
Ottawa has warned Canada's economy will slow in the coming months but believed a recession will be avoided and the government will post a modest surplus this fiscal year.
As for the G20 meeting to be held Nov. 15 in Washington, Gartman believes it will not accomplish much, as the countries will hesitate to do anything until a new president is installed in the White House in 2009.
"Until the new regime takes over in January, doesn't anybody think they're going to take direction from the United States? The answer is probably not," Gartman said.
Source: Xinhua
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