Taiwan leader Chen Shui-bian puts on a still tougher posture despite consecutive, major setbacks he has suffered from his own actions for the "Referendum on entry to the United Nations." He and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) he had once led are ready to act rashly and imperiously till their total failure.
Obviously, the so-called "entry to the UN under the name of Taiwan" and the "Referendum for UN membership" in particular he had prepared to hold represent the biggest audacious political gambling for himself and also for DPP ever since its establishment over two decades ago. Chen Shui-bian and DPP were once involved themselves in gambles in Taiwan province and, this time, they are gambling with the Chinese mainland and with the United States and on the very basic issue of "de jure" Taiwan independence. It can be assured that Chen will fail beyond any doubt and is sure to lose "every cent" and everything at gambling.
The purpose of Chen Shui-bian
Chen Shui-bian is overwhelmed with worries for the impending 2008 January and March elections in Taiwan, and particularly the "Presidential" election in March. He currently fears not only that DPP will lose its power but also that he will no longer remain influential to DPP even if the party succeeds in the coming elections. It can be envisaged that if the Kuomintang (KMT) candidate Ma Ying-jeou wins the election, Chen will lose judicial immunity and have to face several lawsuits. Apparently, only when DPP wins the elections and Chen goes on exerting his strong influence inside the party, can he ensure the safety of himself and his family and even get a possibility for him to resume power.
Therefore, Chen's true intention in advancing the "Referendum for UN membership and going in for the audacious gambling is to facilitate DPP wining the elections and maintaining his own strong influence inside DPP.
Tricks of Chen Shui-bian
Audacious gambling gimmicks played by Chen Shui-bian have become crystal clear today: First, chiefly to ensure the allegiance of the Taiwan independence fundamentalism faction, or the "extremely independent force" in DPP, to set up a reliable basis and guarantee for his influence in the party. Second, to seize and retain the DPP's initiative to win the elections by means of spurring the Referendum on entry to UN. So "Taiwan Identity" derived from the "Referendum for UN membership" has been made the election "axis" for DPP with a strong support of "Taiwan independence fundamentalist" force. Thirdly, to compel Ma Ying-jeon to abandon his election "axis" focused on economy, and transform the situation with DPP into a positive one from the passive one by the means of promoting the "Referendum for UN membership".
Chen Shui-bian insists on gambling with the motherland
In fact, it indeed constitutes a gambling with the motherland to spur the "Referendum for UN membership" in a bid to attain a "breakthrough" for the "de jure" Taiwan independence. To Chen Shui-bian, it seems difficult for the Chinese mainland to make any moves even though the mainland is highly vigilant and indignant at his words and deeds about "de jure" independence, and so he has exerted his utmost to solicit grieves inside the Taiwan island to facilitate DPP winning in the elections.
Since the Chinese mainland adopted and started to implement the "Anti-Secession Law" in March 2005, Chen Shui-bian has all along attempted to find ways and means to evade it with the ensuing two methods: One is to play with words to dodge it in a bid to shun the mainland from resorting to forceful means in line with the eighth article of the Anti-Secession Law and, the other is that with the 29th Olympics due for August 2008 in Beijing, Chen Shui-bian deems it hard for Beijing to take any tough actions against Taiwan for a period of time to come.
In short, Chen Shui-bian played with such tricks or gimmicks in a vain attempt to land the Chinese mainland in a very passive position.
Chen Shui-bian also attempts to gamble with U.S.
Once the "Referendum on entry to UN"plan is made known, the United States immediately and openly voiced its strong dissatisfaction and firm opposition to it. The U.S. has underscored repeatedly that this represents "a step toward the declaration of independence of Taiwan, towards an alteration of the status quo, and breached the "Four Nos" pledge (namely, no declaration of independence, no incorporation of "two states" clauses into the "constitution", no change of the province's name and no referendum on Taiwan independence.). Chen Shui-bian, however, pretended not to take any notice of it.
For over half a century and more, the U.S. has all along been a protector and supporter of Taiwan authority, and one of Chen's strategic objectives is to enhance and expand the protection and support from the U.S. In recent years, nevertheless, the US-Taiwan ties have been turned increasingly strained and complex and their contradictions concerning the restriction and anti-restriction have continued to aggravate. The "Referendum on entry to UN in the name of Taiwan" has apparently done much harms to the American interest, which the U.S. cannot permit whatsoever.
But Chen Shui-bian has kept up gambling with the U.S. What he is actually gambling for is solely to show the United States will not abandon Taiwan no matter how hard he punches its "bottom line". Moreover, he will drag the U.S. desperately into the aggravating across-strait situation he has created himself and even to provoke Sino-US conflicts.
Chen Shui-bian is doomed to lose beyond any doubt
Chinese mainland has a spacious room for maneuvering on the issue of how to attain a breakthrough in coping with the "de jure" Taiwan independence. It can be affirmed that the mainland's reaction is sure to be most effective though not necessarily the toughest. Out of its own interests, it is indeed difficult for the U.S. to give up Taiwan, but this does not mean to say that it will not "abandon" Chen Shui-bian and DPP. In history, there have been numerous cases in which the U.S. has given up (or betrayed) its proteges.
With respect to his political games, Chen Shui-bian has got used to such tricks as methods of killing numerous birds with one stone," "taking two steps forward and one step backward" and "treking on fringes but without‘sparking off." This time, Chen is currently raising the stake and attempting to set off crises, and he will surely draw greater response from the Chinese mainland, intensified pressures from the U.S. and more confused doubts and questions from DPP, and particularly Frank Hsieh's resentment and dissatisfaction, which are sure to further weaken Chen's influence in DPP eventually.
Chen Shui-bian's audacious political gambling is, in essence, poses an out-and-out risk or adventure in a dilemma. Both his words and deeds on "Referendum on entry to UN" will help Taiwanese to see more clearly that he has bet on their lives and property for the interests of himself, his family and DPP and the international community to see more distinctly that he is simply a troublemaker and a peace saboteur. It can be foreseen that his audacious political gambling will fail undoubtedly and doom to lose "every cent" and everything for himself.
By Guo Zhenyuan, a noted research fellow with the China Institute of International Studies, and translated by People's Daily Online
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