For some time, carriers gathered in the Persian Gulf and media warned of the coming war between the United States and Iran. However, a few months have passed, while no war took place. The prediction also disappeared. After all, war is only a reflection of political struggles.
Recently, an article published in the Lebanese "Newsweek" Magazine gave a wholly new description on the war between the United States and Iran, and pointed out that the two countries have unfolded a comprehensive "Cold War." Iranian media described the war launched by the United States to overthrow the Iranian government as a "soft war." Some US analysts believe that a direct military strike against Iran would lead to unpredictable consequences. It seems that in a period of time to come, the two will sit down and adopt a "cold war" approach, so as to strive for a more favorable strategic position.
As a matter of fact, the United States has taken a series of actions in the Middle East: first, it strengthened its support to the so-called "moderates axis" in the Arab world and approved an arms sales package involving a large amount of money with a view to counteract the formation and expansion of the so-called Shiite "crescent axis". Second, it strengthened sanctions on Iran by requesting the international community to take sanctions on Iranian financial institutions and the Revolutionary Guards Corps. Third, it launched propaganda and psychological warfare on Iran, supported the "opposition parties" in the country, schemed out clandestine activities, and manipulated financial situation. Fourth, it arrested the so-called "Iranian agents" in Iran, so as to weaken Iran's influence in Iraq. Fifth, it retained the rapid strike forces of US troops in the Gulf region to maintain its containment efforts.
Some analysts believe that Iran is getting in on the ground in the struggle for the Middle East strategic balance. They gave the evidences as follows: first, the United States toppled the Taliban armed forces in Afghanistan and the Saddam regime in Iraq who are precisely Tehran's opponent; second, the Iran-supported Palestinian militant group Hamas won last year's election. The pro-Iranian Lebanese Hezbollah survived Israeli attack and showed a strong fighting strength. Third, Iran and Turkey strengthened their cooperation in the energy sector and combating the Kurdish separatist, which helped improve Iran's geo-political situation. Fourth, regarding Iraq issue and Iran's nuclear issue, anti-Iraq camp had difference voices. The EU and the International Atomic Energy Agency have been more involved in negotiations process. The US strategic think-tanks and British and Australian leaders proposed to have Iran and Syria involved in resolving the Middle East deadlock.
Since the outbreak of the Iraq war, the Middle East's political landscape, geopolitical structure and strategic structure have undergone major changes. Both the United States and Iran aimed to grasp the initiative to change the pattern in the region. The United States actually has been in a passive position because it followed its early whole-hearted support by full containment. Comparatively speaking, Iran is in a position to facilitate the opportunity, therefore are more active. Now it seems to be difficult for the United States to fulfill its strategic goal of "fighting for a greater victory". Then reducing losses and crisis management become its primary strategic consideration. As for Iran, whether it can make full use of the changing situation becomes the key to maintaining the initiative.
The "soft war" between the United States and Iran will continue as long as the two have structural conflicts in their "national expectation." Whether the "soft war" will evolve into "hard war" will depend on whether the two can wisely handle their strategic interests. It is still possible for the two to lower down the intensity of the "soft war." This depends on whether they can adjust their "national expectation" to a compatible level to each other. The first thing the United States need to do is to abandon its strategic objectives of overthrow the current regime in Iran because this goes beyond the bottom lines of the country's national interests.
By People's Daily Online
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