The United States National Intelligence Office, composed of 16 intelligence units including the CIA, made a surprising announcement on December 3: the United States National Intelligence "strongly believes" that Iran suspended its nuclear weapons program in the autumn of 2003; and as of the first half of 2007, Iran still has not restarted the nuclear weapons program. The "National Intelligence Assessment Report" also revealed that Iran has had no nuclear weapons thus far; and Iran would not have the technological capacity to produce nuclear weapons until 2015.
The report has had a considerable influence. First, it comes as a blow to the Bush administration's hard-line policy and threatening attitude toward Iran. On December 4, "The New York Times" published an eye-catching front page article entitled "An assessment report disturbing foreign policy." On the same day "The Washington Post" published an even less subtle headline on its front page: "Blowing Bush's Iran policy." As we all know, United States intelligence agencies and the Bush administration have declared that Iran has been developing nuclear weapons since 2005. US "hawks" have been urging the use of force to resolve this issue. Vice President Dick Cheney has threatened that the United States would not rule out the use of military force. Bush himself also said on October 17 that "if there is interest to avoid a third world war, we should try to prevent Iran from acquiring the necessary knowledge and technology to manufacture nuclear weapons." But now its intelligence department has concluded that Iran suspended its nuclear weapons program four years ago, which is truly embarrassing.
Secondly, this conclusion constitutes a considerable obstacle to the US's third round of severe sanctions on Iran. As a matter of fact, the international community is skeptical about whether Iran is developing nuclear weapons, and has reservations about the sanctions proposal. Both IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei and Russian President Vladimir Putin have called on Iran to cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency and increase transparency. In addition, they both indicated that there is insufficient evidence demonstrating that Iran is developing nuclear weapons. China also advocates resolution of this issue through diplomatic negotiation. Therefore, this report does not come as a push for sanctions against Iran by the United States and Europe. Although United States officials have said that the report will not change anything and sanctions against Iran will continue; the UN Security Council will have to consider the conclusion of the assessment report if they are asked to adopt new sanctions, said Wang Guangya, Chinese ambassador in the UN.
Thirdly, the report has destroyed the credibility of the Bush administration. People are naturally reminded of the reasons for the United States attack on Iraq. At that time, the United States Secretary of State personally stepped into a UN forum and accused Iran of producing weapons of mass destruction – without letting anyone think otherwise. But facts prove that the Iraq war only occurred as a result of the US government's search for evidence after drawing a conclusion; or by manipulating evidence or tampering with intelligence. But the US government tried to shift the blame on failures in intelligence. Now the intelligence community refuses to be a scapegoat and upholds a more objective stance. This was another strike against the credibility of the United States government. From now on, people should listen to both sides of the story when the US government criticizes other countries.
After all, it is a good thing that the report revealed that Iran had suspended its nuclear weapons program long ago. This will greatly ease the tension between the US and Iran by depriving the US hawks of fuel to launch battles. They have to drop back because many will not listen to them "crying wolf." Just as IAEA Director General ElBaradei said, "This new assessment report should contribute to the elimination of the current crisis."
The author Li Xuejiang is top resident reporter of People's Daily in the U.S
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