US President George W. Bush kick started his 8-day Middle East trip on January 8. It is his first-ever visits to Israel and Palestine since the assumption of his presidency seven years ago. This landmark trip of Bush's, according to US National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley, has two main purposes.
First of all, Bush hopes that his trip is desired to go on spurring or prompting the Palestine-Israel peace talks. Since the Annapolis meetings held in the U.S. last November, Palestine and Israel have had two other rounds of talks and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas also met and conferred once again with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. But their talks were not smooth at all and without any substantial outcome: Israel insists on expanding West Bank settlements and Hamas still goes on launching rockets. The peace talks are faced with the prospects of losing momentum.
Bush intends to boost the morale of leaders of both sides so as to press ahead with peace talks, since this historic trip has something to do with his own status in history and the diplomatic assets he wants to leave behind. So it poses an opportunity to redeem his reputation as he has been burdened with grave defeats in Iraq. Most of the Middle East critics and experts in the U.S., nevertheless, hold that no breakthrough will be likely in view of the present circumstances relating to Palestine and Israel.
Secondly, in his visits to several Gulf nations during the current trip, Bush strives to open still broader channels for Arab-Israel talks on one hand and, on the other hand, to convince these nations to support the fragile peace talk road map of Palestinian President Abbas while arousing moderate Arab nations to join the U.S. in overpowering Hamas, Hezbollah and other so-called "terrorist organizations".
More important, President George Bush's trip has, however, been directed at Iran. Bush is expected to spend most of his eight-day tour in the Gulf countries persuading their leaders that Iran poses a greater threat to them than Israel.
Stephen Hadley, his National Security Advisor, also said to reporters that "There is a lot of concern in the region about Iran, not all of it expressed publicly. The President is going to want to go and talk privately and quietly to indicate that we understand the challenge that Iran represents to the region..."
Therefore, in the mind of President George Bush, Iran still poses as a great danger, despite his country's National Intelligence Estimate report released last December saying that Iran halted its nuclear weapon program in 2003. During the trip, he will take time out of his packed schedule to inspect the U.S. Fifth Fleet based in the Gulf so as to show off the resolve and prowess of the U.S. In doing so, Bush attempts to persuade Arab states to make a clear break with Iran and to work together to build a "fire wall" to contain it.
However, it is pretty hard to tell before hand whether these Arab states will take care of his persuasions. First of all, it is still difficult to affirm if they take Bush's words seriously or whether they have doubts about Iran as Bush has said; and they so far have not made any open commitment in this regard.
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad attended a summit of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) held in Doha, Qatar, in December 2007, and he thus became the first Iranian president to attend such a meeting. In another first for an Iranian leader, he was invited personally by Saudi King Abdullah bin Abdel-Aziz to visit Mecca for the annual haj religious pilgrimage. Moreover, also last month, top Iranian negotiator Ali Larijani visited Egypt, a country that has frozen its ties with Iran for 28 years.
In another related development, sources in Cario note that Arab League Secretary-General Amr Mussa has said that with regard to their relationships with Iran, Arab nations have their own rights to make decisions, as long as Iran does not have any plan to develop nuclear weapons. Why should Iran be isolated and punished, he queried
To be quite frank, Bush's current Middle East trip, of course, facilitates reinforcing U.S.-Arab ties and enhancing the U.S.' strategic position in the Middle East region. But its "efficacy" is limited. Arab leaders know quite clearly that the year 2008 is Bush's last year in office and there is no incumbent president or vice-president running for office, so he will lose his influence for the next US Administration, and the impact of his trip would be reduced by "a great discount", as indicated public opinions in the U.S.
By People's Daily Online and its author is Li Xuejiang, a PD resident reporter in U.S.
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