Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will visit Iraq on March 2 at the invitation of Iraqi President Jalal Talabani. Just after the news was released, widespread concern arose in the international community. This is not only because Ahmadinejad's visit will be the first visit by an Iranian president to Iraq in nearly 30 years; but also because people have been paying close attention to the triangular relations between Iran, Iraq and the United States.
The relations between Iran and Iraq could not be more complex historically. Iraq is an Arab nation, in which a majority of the population is Shiite Islam. However, for a long time, the Sunni minority has been dominating the country. Most Iranians are Persian. More than 90% of its people are Shiite. As close neighbors, Iran and Iraq have had difficulty finding an effective solution for ethnic, religious, political, economic and border conflicts and disputes. Their relationship can even be described as a "feud." In the 1980s, the 8-year large-scale war deepened mutual resentment and caused millions of casualties.
At the turn of the century, Iran-Iraq relations began to improve. In 2003, the United States launched the Iraq war and overthrew the Saddam regime. Later, members of an Iraqi opposition faction returned to the country to build a new political power; and established the new Shiite-dominated government. Simultaneously, the changing geopolitical situation also gained Iraq more attention from Iran. As a result, both sides expressed a desire to improve the status quo. After years of "improvement," former "enemies" are turning into neighboring allies.
It is in this context that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad made up his mind to visit Iraq. His visit is thought-provoking. For Iran, deepening cooperation and building new relations is strategically important for the nation's security, politics, and the economy.
From an economic perspective, Iran and Iraq have deepened their ties with bilateral trade exceeding $2 billion. Ahmadinejad made it clear beforehand that he hoped his visit would deepen cooperation between the two countries; expand bilateral trade; and promote cultural and professional exchange. According to both sides, the volume of bilateral trade is expected to reach $10 billion in 10 years. In addition to assisting the reconstruction of Iraq, more importantly, Iran hopes to seize this historic opportunity (i.e. the drastic changes in Iraq) to reconstruct the relations with Iraq by strengthening ties with the Shiites. At the same time, Iran strives to "bundle" itself with Iraq to improve national security, and enhance its geopolitical position in the Middle East.
Let's not forget the "third party," the United States, who has been an eye-catching factor in Ahmadinejad's upcoming visit to Iraq. Iraq has been a counterweight for Iran during its fight with the United States. The United States has mixed feelings about Ahmadinejad's visit. On the one hand, it is not willing to accept closer relations between Iran and Iraq, which might free Iraq from US control. On the other hand, the United States hopes that Iran can alleviate the security issue in Iraq. Since 2007, it was the three rounds of dialogues between United States and Iran on the Iraqi security issue, and the cooperative attitude of Iran, that has given the United States a glimmer of hope. However, the fourth round of security talks, scheduled for last week, was postponed by Iran. In this context, how to benefit from the struggles and cooperation with Iran still remains a challenge to the United States.
In fact, the United States is still very guarded about Ahmadinejad's visit. It claims it will not interfere in the internal affairs of either country; but it hopes to help improve Iraq's security. However, Ahmadinejad's visit is largely "a show" to the United States, especially when the United States and Iraq are negotiating the future of their relations and the former has been encouraging Iran's containment of Iran. In this way, Iran will not only contain negotiations between the United States and Iraq and demonstrate its influence on the Iraqi issue; but will also carry on its dispute with the United States over the nuclear issue.
(The author is director of Research Office of Middle East under China Institute of Contemporary International Relations)
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