Is the U.S.'s power on the decline? This question seems to be asked year after year. Dating back to 1987, a famous U.S. historian named Paul Kennedy stated that U.S. dominance had inevitably dwindled. Ironically, the world, instead, was subjected to the American Empire with the end of the Cold War and the robust growth of the U.S. economy. Even so, the American people continue to be concerned about the potential decline of U.S. strength.
Recently, Fareed Zakaria, a Newsweek columnist and editor of Newsweek International, and Richard N. Haass, President of the Council on Foreign Relations, published their articles in the magazine, Diplomacy, pointing out that the "U.S era" is coming to an end; and the global power structure in the 21st century will be characterized by "the rise of emerging powers" and "an era without polarization."
Zakaria described the U.S.'s decline as a political failure instead of an economic slowdown. He deems that, unfortunately, Washington has never considered serious, political dislocation and the "birth of a new world." Other analysts think that the rise of multiple powers cannot mean total losses for the U.S, because as a superpower, it still has the potential to lead and shape the entire world.
Zakaria insists that the 21st century will be a "chaotic and hazardous era without polarization"; and the mono-polarization era dominated by U.S power is only a passing phase. And current U.S. power cannot ignore the fact that the absolute international prestige the U.S has enjoyed and its relative influence on the world are both being fiercely challenged.
However, we cannot rush to conclude that U.S. strength will decline, considering that the U.S. is and will still be the number one economic and military power. The U.S. economy has topped the world for over a century, with its total economic output accounting for a quarter of the world total. Its military expenditure accounts for 1/2 of the world total; and amounts to the total of the 14 countries immediately following. But in terms of development, the U.S.'s supreme position is encountering unavoidable challenges.
In recent years, more and more emerging economies have mushroomed. According to the 2008 World Development Index released by the World Bank, the total economic output of emerging economies accounts for 41 percent of the world total. This may not reflect the U.S economic slowdown, but indicates the beginning of the "post-U.S" era.
In the "post-U.S" era, the power system centered on one or two super powers will shatter. Zakaria believes that in future, global decisions will be made by many people in various places. Haass echoes the statement saying that in the future, the world powers will be largely scattered, and a monopoly by any super power on the global power system will collapse.
According to Haass, a world without polarization will be rife with hazards and risks. International organizations, national states, multi-national corporations, non-government organizations, global media, religious organizations, and even insurgency or terrorist organizations will compete against one another for power and international influence.
The modern international relations system stems from Europe in 17th century, and was imposed upon Asia, Africa and Latin America by the super powers of the time. Since the 21st century was ushered in, the structure of global, political and economic systems have radically altered with the deepening globalization. The nations which have gained independence and economic growth are in droves, appearing as equals in the global arena. In this way, an international system without polarization may deliver a message of democracy rather than anarchy; and a polar-free world regulated by globalization will not necessarily bring about chaos.
The U.S., the super power with an air of self-importance, may find it difficult to accept a world composed of "all equals." It must face up to a reality in which the rule maker is bound to same rules that are binding for all.
By People's Daily Online
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