By Li Hongmei People's Daily Online
It looms clear that the currently downward economic situation is also challenging the think tank system in China. In recent days, hence, many have been expecting China's think tanks to kick off a radical change. A top level think tank, established last month following the instructions of Premier Wen Jiabao, is believed to be a pioneer for think tanks' transformation in China.
In contrast to those think tanks affiliated to government departments, the newly formed China Centre for International Economic Exchanges (CCIEE) is a semi-official think tank, now the highest level of the kind in China. Many members of the centre are retired senior official, and former Vice Premier, Zeng Peiyan, serves as its Director. Inspired by some foreign examples-- American politicians Henry Kissinger and Zbigniew Brzezinski both had the experience of working in think tanks before and after they worked as senior officials in the White House--, China is prepared to take advantage of the special status of these retired officials, which can help them more easily approach public issues. Moreover, their political experience enables them to understand the particular requirements of policy makers.
However, the status quo of China's think tanks, estimated 2,000 in number by the News Weekly 'Outlook', is far from satisfactory in both its professional competence and international clout. That explains why, of all the 2,000 research institutes known as think tanks across the nation, only 74 has reached the international criteria and gained acknowledgement. Many think tanks have even incurred public criticism in recent years for their improper comments and predictions about social and economic situations.
For instance, last July, when the oil prices hit a record high of US$147 a barrel, some think tanks in China said it would reach US$200 soon. Five months later, these experts were put to shame when prices plunged to US$35 a barrel.
In the period of 'travel rush' during Spring Festival, an expert from a famous think tank set up a huge wave of public rage when he released his remarks on media saying 'the only way out to settle the problems related to 'travel rush' during holidays is to highly drive up the traffic fares.' Besides, many more so-called think tanks would rather wait until problems pile up before making a reckoning, that would be sort of 'firing belated shots.'
It is obvious that those think tanks make wrong judgments not really due to their lack of professional competence, but actually because some of them are so closely connected with 'interest groups.' Experts from think tanks affiliated to government agencies have to make sure their remarks are in line with the interests of the department in question. Trapped in such a bottle neck, China's think tank system is in the urgent need to make a breakthrough, and the establishment of semi-official or independent think tanks is deemed by many analysts what China literally needs at the time.
Especially at the juncture when China is increasingly integrated into the international community and comes to be known as a centre player on the world stage, it seems more desirable than ever for the country to possess a more advanced think tank system commensurate with its enhanced political and economic clout. Perhaps, it would be advisable for china to draw on the experience of others in building the internationalized think tank system, say, the U.S. has made a name as the 'paradise of think tanks' to the world and its experience can be taken for reference.
Also in history, the U.S. think tanks, playing a critical role in helping politicians make policies and work out strategies, had turned out many success stories and even legends. In 1950s, on the Eve of the Korean War, the U.S government as well as military held identical views predicting that China would not send its troops to the battle front. But the famous think tank Research and Development (RAND) published its report, which was then quite opposite to the official prediction but later proved correct by history-- China entered the War on a full scale.
A recent case concerns North Korea's most debated rocket launch. Many think tanks in the Western world had been vying for time to release their latest findings before and during the event, information ranging from detailed research reports, both the speed and depth of satellite photographs, and foresight about potential impacts of the event upon policy-making of the nations all across the globe. Voice of China's think tanks large and small, nevertheless, was not in the least heard in the international community. This is ill-matched with China's international status as a crucial leverage in the Six-Party Talks.
China is emerging as a weight-carrying power, and therefore, in the process of enhancing its national strength and lifting its international influence, an internationalized think tank system featuring global credibility and significance will prove to be more or less indispensible.
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