Will Condolence Diplomacy bridge two Koreas?

By Li Hongmei,People's Daily Online

A high-ranking delegation sent by Pyongyang to mourn a former South Korea leader is widely considered a conciliatory gesture so far made by the reclusive and single-minded Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), or North Korea, to pave the way for a thaw with its feuding neighbor on the Peninsula. This is also the first olive branch offered by the North after months of military grandstanding and tit-for-tat tussles with the international community to defend its nuke activities.

While history has manifested quite a few times that state funeral could be employed as an opportune time for mending fences, or patching up relations, it is still a moot point whether Pyongyang's heartfelt condolences to its most respected late 'Sunshine' President Kim Dae-jung would possibly get its desired fruit. The incumbent South President Lee Myung-bak, nonetheless, met the delegation of close aides of North leader Kim Jong-il on Sunday and reportedly received a message from Kim, the first ever formal communication between two Koreas since Lee took office about 18 months ago.

South Korea's presidential Blue House, however, insisted its policy towards North would remain 'consistent and firm' particularly on the nuclear arsenal, and it meanwhile denied reports in several newspapers that the envoys conveyed a request by Kim for a summit with Lee, who has been roundly vilified by the North for pushing the hard-line policy on North and ending years of unconditional aid to its impoverished neighbor.

Some analysts said North Korea dropping pretentious airs and making rare conciliatory overtures in recent weeks might indicate sanctions, authorized by UN resolutions and increasingly enforced against it, are probably squeezing dry the state and forcing it to seek funds for its depleted coffers. Some cynics in South Korea even deemed the hat-in-hand gestures from the North is 'their regular show to beg for aid', which is obviously too childish to be a fair judgment, and downplays the political wisdom of its poor rival.

North Korea's softened stance to U.S and its ally South Korea in the bygone days is something conspicuous to the entire world----Releasing two American journalists to curry favor with the visiting former U.S. president Bill Clinton, freeing a South Korean worker it held for months, agreeing to lift restrictions on border crossings, and pledging to resume suspended joint projects with South and the reunion of families separated during the Korea War, which ended in 1953 with merely a truce.

Despite all those overtures, Washington and Seoul would still ratchet up pressures on Pyongyang to dismantle its nuke programs, which is, definitely, not unexpected to Pyongyang's resourceful politicians. But why they persist in doing so really deserves a close study. One thing is certain: what North is in need at the juncture is something more than aid. If assumption were involved in the situation analysis of North Korea, what concerns it most would be, in all likelihood, time and the ways devised to win time.

It needs sufficient time to mull over its nuclear stockpiles. Although few signs show it will ever give up its nuke weapons, some progress must be discerned by the international community indicating it is on the track of denuclearization, in return for the U.N. promise of 'disarmament-for-aid'. In the meantime, enough time is also needed to guarantee the smooth power takeover by allegedly Kim's youngest son, whose authority is yet to be full-blown.

Additionally, North Korea's significant about-face is also dropping some hint to China, its largest supplier of aid, testing China's attitudes, especially at a time when its long-range rocket launch and nuclear tests in May, and it unilaterally brushing off Beijing-brokered Six-Party Talks, had put China in an awkward predicament.

Beijing has been reluctant to push any punishment that could destabilize North Korea, but the effectiveness of U.N. sanctions will be hinged on the full participation by China, which is known quite well to the North's leadership. Since the Obama administration has been reluctant to enter direct talks as it hoped, North might turn to a 'sincere dialogue' with South. Or probably, North Korea might be swaying into resuming Six-Party Talks to please the international community and to assure other partners it is stepping onto the sound track.

In any case, it is only hoped that communication will soon kickoff towards a nuclear-free and tranquil Korean Peninsula.