By Li Hong, People's Daily Online
Coming out of mass intrigue and amid sorts of fanfare, the nascent bloc of emerging economic powerhouses, dubbed as BRIC Four, held their first-ever summit in Yekaterinburg, Russia. It produced a low-profile statement, assuring the wildly beating hearts in the Western developed capitals, typically Washington DC.
Top leaders of Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC), which Goldman Sachs chief economist Jim O'Neill coiled the acronym in his 2001 essay, called for a more diversified international monetary system in the statement. They but wrapped up the full-fledged summit by avoiding any explicit bombardment of the world's dominant reserve currency, the US dollar. It didn't touch on any specifics or a blueprint to usher in the propagated supranational currency for settling future world trade.
Why? For all the criticism of the greenback and ever-bubbling indebtedness of the United States, dollar-denominated bonds sold by the largest emerging-market countries are outperforming debt traded in BRIC Four's own currencies. The dollar accounted for 64 percent of central bank reserves worldwide at year end, up from 62.8 percent in June 2008.
Although some government heads had prior to the meeting swiped at the inertia and indecision of the developed countries in dealing with the severe economic recession, which lapses of the United States on overseeing Wall Street triggered, it appeared that the four lack cohesiveness and unified mandate to do something really a blockbuster at its debut summit. Or, they don't aspire to topple the old house all together, preferring to perform steadfast and incremental overhauls.
Some observers say the four countries are so disparate, with varied domestic concerns and reckoning possible repercussions from the United States that the grouping is short of teeth and dedication. It can hardly come to a common agenda yet. Some say the closeness among the four is possibly even lower than any individual's closeness to the West. I would say, though no single American or Western European was invited to the bunch, the developed economies' impact was by no means taken for granted.
That said, the four fast-growing developing countries, dubbed as “four gold bricks”, should never be underestimated, and they are justified to gain more clout in the economic arena, say, voting rights in the IMF, World Bank and other international organizations. The four governments, if better coordinated and choreographed, could initiate fresh ideas and grab more decision-making powers from the developed ones, no matter the topics relate to gas emissions, agricultural subsidies, price gouging on the world commodities market, and stricter oversight of financial organizations.
All the more, the four largest emerging economies have an obligation to form a strong voice to speak for the interests of the vast less developed countries, in Africa, Latin America, Asia and elsewhere. Now, weathering the global financial crisis better than the developed economies, the four could prop up their own recoveries, and invest more in the Third World poor countries.
And, to control the risk of a catastrophic meltdown of the dollar, if any, it will be a wise choice to diversify one's foreign currency reserve, as putting your eggs in varied baskets is playing safe. Last week, both Russia and Brazil announced plans to buy US$ 20 billion of IMF bonds, after China said it was considering purchasing US$50 billion IMF securities. The move will diversify some of the countries' holdings.
While the Four are far from a monolithic group, they are worried about the soaring debt of American government, fearing a bungled management of the dollar could send the world economies off the cliff. For sure, the developing countries should not have to see painfully accumulated hard currencies shrink in value under the shadow of major devaluations. It will also wreck havoc on the United State itself.
As Mr O'Neill has put it, the world affairs won't be properly run without having the BRIC Four closely involved. To level the playing ground for all, it is prerequisite for the developed countries to confer more with the developing countries before taking actions.