By Li Hong, People's Daily Online
The bleeding of Wall Street, evaporation of hard-earned money in the past years before 2008, and bankruptcies of businesses, households and even governments have now seemly come to a final end, a year on from the collapse of the Lehman Brothers. Nevertheless, it is premature to suggest the slow and timid recovery won't take another dip, as the majority of us are now over buoyed by the belief that a new boom is right at the corner.
Although central banks and government economists have reached a general agreement that vigorous intervention measures, typically fiscal stimulus plans, have succeeded in preventing a worst scenario from impaling all of us economically, now isn't time to celebrate. Bigger bailouts might not be needed any more, but the talk of upending governments' public spending programs that have bolstered investment and averted a depression, is misleading and counterproductive, if not ludicrous.
The challenge is that till today not many governments and especially investment bankers – the trouble-makers in the first place – have had a serious retrospect of what has happened, or tried to seek what went wrong on their hands that led to a sudden meltdown of the whole system.
Even in the United States where the debacle was initially planted, exploded and then cascaded to other continents, only feckless efforts are seen in the biggest economic powerhouse's check-up of its financial system, in strengthening its legislation to plug the holes, and in educating the bankers there with a better-written code of conduct.
Alan Greenspan, the former chief of the Federal Reserve who is bristled by many for presumably having fired up the American equity bubble with long-term low rates, warned lately in an interview with The Times that the crisis "will happen again" , mostly because of "human nature" of hoping for and eating a bigger pie. Unless the men's greedy nature is changed, he predicted more crashes would be inevitable, though the next one may take a different form.
The mark of this economic catastrophe left on our humble life will have to be indelible in history, as millions in the world have lost their homes or jobs or welfare coverage, and are struggling in poverty and misery. But, hardly has the economy retooled , optimism has shrouded the Wall Street, as the bulk of the laid-off bankers have come back re-engaging in the same old highly risky but lucrative dealings. This optimism might come from an absence of knowledge of how much risk was still in the system. The scar hasn't really healed yet, the boys have been in the fray playing the game again.
As to legislation of the financial industry, which economists deem pivotal in preventing future crisis, pace hasn't really been set in America as the bankers are fighting all their shots to cripple regulation. If the insurance industry is able to drag Obama plan to overhaul the health care, the more powerful bankers and their proxies in the Capitol could display even greater countering force.
The pros and cons in the United States aside, the crisis has made a dent on the aged regimes in other economies, propelling them to readjust and adapt to it. It is a clear reminder to China's policy-makers, too, who have previously planned to bring courageous reforms to its system.
Globalization and integration of China's economy with the world is unstoppable, but liberation of its financial and banking system could be well paced. Over exposed to others' financial inventions, the debt-wrapped derivatives under whatever cozy money-making name, will jeopardize the security of the country's financial system. And please in heart, that over-exuberance in producing bubbles, no matter it is housing bubble, Internet bubble, or stock bubble, is dangerous.
The article represents the author's view only. It does not represent opinions of People's Daily or People's Daily Online.