'Strong Dollar' or 'Weak Dollar'?
16:43, October 20, 2009
By Li Hong, People’s Daily Online
Policy-makers from both the United States and Europe have claimed that they wanted a "strong dollar", but obviously one of the two doesn’t really mean it. And, the Obama administration has a reason to keep quiet as the greenback is on a constant free fall in value against other major currencies.
There is concern in Europe and other continents that the United States is seeking a short-term boost to its exports to other countries and a long-term reduction in the volume of government and private debts.
One of the pivotal goals for Fed officials is to address the mounting national debts, which is increasingly endangering economic viability of the United States and the dollar as the world’s premier reserve money. Another radiant job for President Obama is to create more jobs at home at a time when the two-year severe recession has driven American jobless rate up to 10 percent.
A weak dollar will prove to be the magic weapon by expanding exports of American goods to all trading partners. The trajectory is able to earn more proceeds from trade, and keep manufacturing jobs at home.
This is so good a strategy that Fed officials are expected to vigorously pursue it while only paying lip service to "strong dollar" rhetoric.
Furthermore, Uncle Sam could resort to more trade safeguards, like levying excessive duties on Chinese tires, to prevent influx of foreign goods outside American borders. After all, grievance of job loss streaks during an economic downturn is the least President Obama wants to hear.
However, countries with rising value of their currencies have felt the pinch. Following weeks of a rising euro, Europeans are complaining that they are being squeezed out of competition for exports, and a shadow has been cast over a spluttering recovery there.
Despite numerous attempts by European countries to persuade Washington into backing its dollar, market watchers and traders believe that the value of the euro is on the way to regain its all-time high of 1.60 dollars soon.
Even if Fed officials do not covet a weak currency and are earnest bolstering the dollar, their hands are now restricted. To nurture a nascent stabilizing and budding recovery, the Federal Reserve will by no means tilt towards upending the expansionary monetary policy and raising the interest rates. Sucking up liquidity at this critical time is equal to killing the recovery in the United States.
So, for a time, the world will continue to see a rising price in key commodities like oil and gold, and a sustaining recovery will lure more capital back to the United States. When a strong growth is set there, nobody will question the position of the greenback in world trade.
The articles in this column represent the author's views only. They do not represent opinions of People's Daily or People's Daily Online.

After 19 years working for China Daily and its website, Li Hong moved to english.people.com.cn in March 2009.
Li has been a reporter and column writer, mainly on China's economy and politics.
He was graduated from Beijing Foreign Studies University, and once studied in University of Hawaii and the Poynter Institute in Florida.
Gavin Jon MowatGavin Jon Mowat, editor and columnist for People's Daily Online.
As a graduate from Heriot-Watt University in Edinburgh, UK, Gavin came to Beijing 2 years ago to study Chinese.
Enjoying the culture and traditions of the orient so much, Gavin has since left his home in Scotland and is now living and working in China.
Gavin uses his background in writing to share his experiences of China with you at People's Daily Online.
Li HongmeiLi Hongmei, editor and columnist of PD Online.
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