Russian interests in Libya hanging in balance

MOSCOW, Aug 24 (Xinhua) -- As the rebel National Transitional Council (NTC) moves closer to power in Libya, Russia's interests in the North African country are facing a precarious future.

Russia abstained in March from the U.N. Security Council vote on Resolution 1973, which authorized international military intervention in Libya to protect civilians.

Yet Moscow obviously toughened its stance on the Libyan government of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi in early August, as President Dmitry Medvedev signed a decree backing the U.N. resolution.

Commenting on the latest developments in Libya on Wednesday, Medvedev struck a cautious tone, saying that Russia's position on the Libya issue is "accurate."

Moscow, the president added, might establish relations with the next Libyan government if it could unite the nation on the democratic platform.

Russian experts said Moscow's "double thinking" during the six-month-old conflict might be considered by the Libyan opposition as an attempt to seat in two chairs at once.

Such an approach might result in considerable losses for Russian companies in Libya should the NTC form a capable government, they predicted.

"Russia would be eager to participate in the post-conflict reconstruction of Libya and restoration of its infrastructure. The question is, if Russia would be allowed to do so," Yevgeny Satanovsky, head of Russia's Middle East Institute, told Xinhua.

Even if Moscow recognizes the Libyan opposition right now, it is still a bit late for Moscow to win sympathy from the rebels-turned rulers, said Yuri Krupnov, an expert at the Institute of Demography, Migration and Regional Development in Moscow.

"If NATO wins in Libya, Russia will not be allowed to develop oil and gas fields, to build railroads or to sign arms deals with Tripoli's new regime," Krupnov said.

"Russia effectively betrayed Gaddafi by not vetoing U.N. Resolution 1973 and now Moscow reaps what it has sown," the expert added.

For Russian companies, Libya could have been lost forever, said Aram Schultz, head of the Russia-Libya Business Union.

"Let's don't lull ourselves. Gazprom, Gazprom Neft, Tatneft are doomed to lose hundreds of millions of U.S. dollars they have invested in Libya," he said, referring to three Russian energy giants.

According to Konstantin Eggert, a Russian expert on Middle East affairs, even now the Kremlin could not stand aside with the Libyan rebels due to Russia's domestic political reasons, but this explanation would prove a hard sell to the Libyan opposition.

"Russia cannot expect the new Libyan government to embrace these explanations with joy. Moscow has been siding with Gaddafi for too long," Eggert told Xinhua.

"The chances for Gazprom and other Russian energy and military-industrial companies to retain their contracts with Libya are slim," the expert added.

On the other hand, Eggert said, Moscow may still have the chance to be a "secondary" friend of the Libyan opposition, and Russian companies could return to Libya in the long term.

Mikhail Margelov, Medvedev's envoy on the Libyan issue, noted Tuesday that the Libyan opposition has promised to honor the contracts signed between the Gaddafi government and Moscow.

"However, so far there is nobody (in Libya) to negotiate with," the envoy admitted.

Still, some experts voiced different opinions. Alexei Malashenko from Moscow Carnegie Center regarded the situation as not so hopeless for the Russian business in Libya.

"The NTC is not a single monolithic block, so the future of Russian interests in Libya depends on which part of the NTC prevails in the new government," Malashenko told Xinhua.

He stressed that Libyan opposition leaders were not so naive to expect that Moscow would switch sides immediately after the conflict began.

"So Russia has got a chance to retain its position in Libya, but Moscow currently has few tools to influence the NTC's decisions," the expert said.

"Moscow's politics in the Libyan conflict could not be called a complete failure, but also could hardly be considered a success. As a result, the Kremlin now can only wait and see," he said.