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China on course for stable growth: JP Morgan (3)

By Chen Jia (China Daily)

08:37, December 07, 2012

"China's moderate economic recovery will continue in 2013 with easing measures aimed at supporting infrastructure investment."

Zhu expected investment growth to hit 21.5 percent next year as a result.

While his predictions for global economic growth as a whole were less optimistic, he still sees gradual recovery.

"China's exports are likely to improve to growth of 13 percent in 2013, compared with the forecast increase rate of 8 or 9 percent this year," he said.

Given the turnaround in economic growth in recent months, he does not see any need for more interest rate cuts.

"But there is still room to cut lenders' reserve requirements about two to three times in the first half of 2013," Zhu added.

On the record appreciation of the yuan against the dollar in November, he predicted the Chinese currency "may appreciate to 6.22 by the end of this year", and is "likely to reach 6.15 by the end of 2013".

The appreciation would cause severe damage to the country's export-oriented businesses, however, and companies should remain confident that growth will continue, Zhu said.

"A positive sign is that the central bank has taken fewer measures to influence the foreign exchange rate market in recent months, which will be a significant part of the future reform of the exchange rate system."

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