The National Intelligence Council of the United States (NIC) has recently released the report “Global Trends 2030: Possible World,” forecasting that China’s total economic output (GDP) will surpass the United States by 2030 and become the world’s largest economic entity. The report also said that it will be difficult for Chinese economy to maintain the average annual growth rate between 8 and 10 percent like in the past 30 years, and will face the risks of political instability, rising nationalism and “middle-income trap.”
It is the first U.S. official forecast saying that China may catch up to it in the future, which caused great attention of the international media.
A burgeoning China brings to the world more opportunities, not threats
China’s sustained development and growth have brought tangible benefits to the world and it also a fresh driving force for its future development. From the Asian financial crisis in late 1990s to the international financial crisis of today, if it is without China’s persistent contributions, the world economy would have been entirely different.
Many countries say that the economic and trade relations with China especially the robust growth of exports to China is the major factor for them to survive in the international financial crisis and to avoid economy downturns. A survey of the IMF shows that China has become the biggest or second biggest trading partner of 78 countries in the world. In the decade since China joined the WTO, China kept an average annual import of 750 billion U.S. dollars, creating over 14 million jobs in related countries and regions. The profit repatriation by foreign-invested enterprises cumulated to 261.7 billion U.S. dollars, at an annual growth rate of 30 percent. In the 12th Five-Year Plan period starting from 2011 to 2015, China is expected to import goods worth more than 8 trillion U.S. dollars, which means it will create enormous business opportunities to the world.
According to the NIC report, it is expected that China’s proportion in the world economic growth will be over 33 percent around 2025, which is far more than any other major economies. The future development of China will better benefit its neighboring countries and worldwide.
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