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Saturday, November 13, 1999, updated at 12:19(GMT+8)
Business IMF Projects World Economy Growth by 3.5 Pct in 2000

Global economic and financial conditions have improved markedly after the turbulence in emerging economies in 1997-98 and the global growth in 2000 is projected around 3.5 percent, according to the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) latest World Economic Outlook (WEO).

While introducing the IMF's bi-annual flagship publication to reporters here Friday, Deputy Director of the IMF's Research Department Flemming Larson said the assessment and outlook is the product of a comprehensive inter-departmental review of world economic developments, which draws primarily on information the IMF staff gather through their consultations with member countries.

The WEO, which is prepared for the IMF/World Bank Interim Committee and Annual Meetings, notes that growth projections for 1999 have been revised up significantly for all the Asian crisis economies and Japan as well, and the economic downturn in Brazil and Russia have been shallower than expected.

A recovery in world oil prices and the arrest of declines in many other commodity prices have provided relief for some commodity-exporting countries, the projected strengthening of growth in Europe "seems to be materializing" and "growth remains impressive amid few signs of emerging price or wage pressures" in the United states, WEO adds.

Listing economic growth forecasts on regional basis, WEO says Asia is seen advancing 3.1 percent in 1999 and around 5 percent in 2000, Africa is now projected growing at a 3.1 percent rate in 1999 and at about 4.8 percent in 2000, the Western Hemisphere is projected to record 0.1 percent growth in 1999 and around 3.9 percent in 2000, and for Europe and the Middle East growth is projected around 1.8 percent this year and 3.1 percent next year.

WEO also underlines that many challenges remain to be addressed to ensure the recovery is sustainable and more balanced.

It states "there is particular reason for concern about the unbalanced pattern of growth observed recently among the major industrial countries and about the economic and financial consequences worldwide if the eventual demand in the United States turns out to be sharper than is generally expected at present."

"While the return to broad price stability remains an important policy achievement, macroeconomic instability has persisted in much of the world economy, continuing to post challenges for, and in many ways making new demands on, economic policies," it adds.

WEO also warns that "If growth were to weaken significantly in the United States without offsets in Japan and Europe, there would also be reason for concern about the sustainability of the recoveries underway in the Asian economies recently in crisis, and much of Latin America would be particularly vulnerable under such a scenario."

It also notes that an added risk in the global economy relates to "potential financial market reactions to actual or perceived Y2K compliance problems in emerging markets."

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