On June 16, 2014, just before Chinese Premier Li Keqiang's visit to the UK, he wrote an article for The Times, saying that the slowdown of Chinese economic growth is normal. Chinese government has confidence to realize the 7.5 percent GDP growth target and will make adjustments on policies to meet the goal.
The rebound of many economic indicators boosted the confidence of the Premier.
Statistics released by the Ministry of Commerce showed that in May, China's consumer sales increased by 12.5 percent and the total retail sales of consumer goods exceeded 2.1 trillion yuan. From January to May 2014, the cumulative increase of the total retail sales of consumer goods was 12.1 percent, with the growth rate increasing month by month.
Meanwhile, the foreign trade statistics of May also showed signs of stabilizing in economy. In May, China's import and export increased by 3 percent in U.S. dollar terms, among which export increased by 7 percent, 6.1 percent higher than the previous month.
Besides, China's Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in May was 50.8 percent, 0.4 percent higher than the previous month. The PMI has rebounded for three consecutive months, which also suggests that China's manufacturing industry is recovering.
From January to May 2014, the fixed assets investment increased by 17.2 percent on a year-on-year basis, a slight fall comparing with the 17.3 percent from January to April. However, from January to May 2014, the infrastructural investment (excluding power) reached 2.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 25 percent, which is 2.2 percent higher than the figure from January to April.
Chang Jian, Chief Economist of Barclays said that the statistics of China's domestic economic activities in May was consistent with or slightly higher than the forecast. From January to May this year, though the fixed investment of the manufacturing industry and real estate industry slowed down to some extent, the investment in infrastructures speeded up.
According to Chang Jian, Barclays still holds the opinion that China’s GDP growth would hit the bottom in the first quarter; meanwhile, its forecast on the GDP growth of the second quarter has been raised to 7.4 percent.
JPMorgan Chase also raised its forecast on the second quarter GDP growth from 6.8 percent to 7.2 percent.
The article is edited and translated from《数据向好提振信心 多家机构上调中国GDP增长预期》, source: People's Daily Online, author: Xia Xiaolun.