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Annual economic growth rate in China to be 7-8 per cent, says academic

By Yuan Can, Kong Defang (People's Daily Online)    15:30, October 15, 2014
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Cheng Siwei, Dean of the School of Management at the University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, delivers a keynote speech on Oxford China Business Forum 2014 on the afternoon of Oct. 14, 2014. (People's Daily Online/Yuan Can)

BEIJING, October 14 (People’s Daily Online) - China's economic growth rate will be seven to eight per cent from 2013 to 2022, said a leading academic at a business forum held in Beijing.

Speaking at the Oxford China Business Forum 2014 on Oct.14 on the theme of transformational change in China, Cheng Siwei, Dean of the School of Management at the University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, forecast the Chinese economic trend for the coming years.

Although China is currently experiencing a minor economic slowdown, the world does not need to worry about the Chinese economy, Cheng said.

Cheng pointed out there is a 10-year economic cycle in China. In a new economic cycle starting from 2013 to 2022, the average annual growth rate will be seven to eight per cent and the ceiling of the inflation rate will be four per cent.

Cheng guessed that the year 2019, one year after election year in 2018, will see the peak of this economic cycle, as the experience of the old leadership blends with the vigour of the new leadership.

"No forecast can ever be fully accurate, but without forecasts we cannot survive," said Cheng at the forum.

As the second largest economic entity, China's economy has a major impact on the world economy. As China enters a period of significant economic transformation, and with the government also facing many challenges, the public is very curious about the economic growth rate in the coming years.

In the following part of his speech, Cheng also pointed out that local debts, the housing market, and the stock market are the three main challenges faced by the Chinese government in the financial sector.

Cheng suggested that governments should ease the problem of housing system through a variety of economic measures.

For major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou, local governments should continue to implement purchasing limit and immigration. At the same time, these governments should increase housing supply.

For medium and large cities, governments should lift restrictions. 

(Editor:Yuan Can、Liang Jun)
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